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UPDATE: 3:30pm in Cabo – Invest 96s is now Tropical Depression Four-E and at present, should it strengthen as anticipated, the storms name will be Celia by Thursday and is thought to become a category 1 hurricane on Sunday. As has been already mentioned, this system is very far from Cabo – 740 miles southwest and is heading in a westward direction away from Mexico at 8mph with max sustained winds of 35mph
Hurricane Blas is maintaining Cat 3 strength and is approx 1,100 miles wsw of Cabo San Lucas heading wnw at 12mph away from Mexico with max sustained winds of 125mph and will possibly weaken to a cat 2 Thursday/Friday …
Neither storm will impact land and there will be no watches or warnings (heading away from land so it’s a given there won’t be any) – this is just an informational update. This is of more interest than filing paperwork haha
Latest … yesterday afternoon Blas rapidly increased to a Cat 4 but is now weakening.
Thankfully, it is early in the season and the waters near Baja California Sur are still cool and the winds are in our favor. We generally do not pay much attention to the weather in regards to Hurricanes until late August, for sure September and there always seems to be one that tries to mess with Bisbee’s but no one ever let a little weather get in the way of the world’s richest tournament! So just remain calm as the storms keep popping up; I told you I’d send up the bat signal if there was cause for alarm. I am just doing my thing … keeping an eye on the weather, and ensuring people understand what they are looking at when they visit the very popular site eebmike
Example, see this earlier post about forecast tracks, and this one about cones of concern (my nickname for them). My primary goal, is to make it so people are self educated because when I first moved here, I freaked about every storm for no reason. But that, is a topic for another day.
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...LARGE EYE OF BLAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 123.6W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 123.6 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast tonight and Thursday, followed by a faster rate of weakening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Direct Link to Above Text to the NHC
Now on to Invest 96e
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Blas, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Forecaster Brown Direct Link to the above text