2024 North East Pacific Hurricane Season Preliminary Forecast By:Just Jenn
On May 6, 2024, SMN issued its forecast for the season, forecasting a total of 15–18 named storms developing, with 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes. Hurricane Season for our region begins May 15th and ends November November 30th.
To put things into perspective, the North East Pacific Ocean has experience an average of 15 named storms since 1991, 8 of which become hurricanes and 4 of which become major hurricanes according to “wiki”.
According to NOAA, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance). Since “we generally worry the most during the month of September, this is a good thing. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Below you can see the last several years of the natural occurance of the ENSO cycle. The ENSO cycle is where to put it into simple terms, sometimes the sea surface temperature is higher (red), sometimes it is lower (blue), and sometiomes it is considered neutral (grey).
What does this mean for those along the East Pacific coast of North America? We should anticipate fewer storms developing in the North East Pacific Ocean which is a good thing as Baja California Sur generally experiences about just under 14% of the storms that have developed in the last 60 years.
Those that have been following my blog for years know I am not a fan of neutral periods, and those that have lived here for as many decades (if not more) also know we rely on storms to fill our aquifers (An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing material, consisting of permeable or fractured rock, or of unconsolidated materials. Aquifers vary greatly in their characteristics. The study of water flow in aquifers and the characterization of aquifers is called hydrogeology.)
So now that we know what we might anticipate, whether we only experience tropical deppressions, tropical storms, sideswipes or direct hits, at least we now have an idea of what to anticipate for the 2024 North East Pacific Hurricane Season. I wish I had a crystal ball to know what is in store for Baja California Sur. As always, I will continue to do my best to keep you informed.
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