Hurricane Season Novela 2026: Episode 1 — Amanda Signs the Contract 🌀🎬
The first named storm of the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has officially arrived.
Tropical Depression One-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Amanda this morning, becoming the season’s first named storm.
Before anyone starts panic-buying snacks, Amanda is currently located approximately 1,460 miles west-southwest of Los Cabos and is forecast to remain far away from Baja California Sur.
The National Hurricane Center expects Amanda to strengthen somewhat over the next day or two before encountering less favorable conditions, including stronger wind shear and drier air. Weakening is expected later this week, and Amanda could become a remnant low by the weekend.
Does Amanda Affect Los Cabos?
Short answer:
No.
Amanda is moving over the open Pacific Ocean and remains very far from Baja California Sur. Current forecasts keep the storm well offshore and away from our region.
Meanwhile…
The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring two additional areas for possible development:
Area #1 – Offshore Southern & Southwestern Mexico
- 20% chance of development within 7 days
- A low-pressure area may form early next week
- Gradual development is possible
Area #2 – South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico
- 50% chance of development within 7 days
- A tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week
- This is currently the more likely area to watch
About Those Long-Range Models…
Every hurricane season, social media fills up with screenshots showing storms doing all sorts of dramatic things 10+ days into the future.
I am not paying attention to those long-range fantasy tracks right now.
Amanda is nowhere near Baja California Sur, and neither of the areas currently being monitored have formed yet.
Also worth noting: sea surface temperatures in our local waters remain significantly cooler than the much warmer waters farther south where these systems are developing.
As always, we’ll focus on what is actually happening—not what a computer model imagines might happen two weeks from now.
For now:
Amanda gets the first speaking role of the season.
Everyone else is still auditioning.
xoxo,
Just Jenn