Well… the Eastern Pacific has decided to give us something to watch.
Thankfully, none of it currently represents a tropical cyclone threat to Los Cabos. But there is plenty happening out over the Pacific this morning, so let’s take a look.
Iselle is still the big one
Tropical Storm Iselle is currently centered near 20.7°N, 119.9°W, moving northwest at about 13 knots.
With maximum sustained winds around 60 knots and gusts to 75 knots, Iselle is getting close to hurricane strength—but the National Hurricane Center expects the storm to gradually weaken over the next several days.
The forecast takes Iselle generally west-northwest, farther out into the Pacific, where it is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by early Friday.
So, for Los Cabos, Iselle isn’t coming for us.
What she is doing is sending some impressive swell our way.
Large southerly swells generated by Iselle are already affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and are expected to continue moving through the offshore waters and reaching the coast through Wednesday night.
That means surf and rip currents are the things to pay attention to, particularly along exposed Pacific beaches.
The Gulf of California is a completely different story, with winds currently generally light to moderate and seas remaining slight.
And then there’s Julio.
Remember Tropical Depression Ten-E?
Well, Ten-E has officially become Tropical Storm Julio.
Julio is currently centered near 15.7°N, 119.8°W, moving north-northeast at about 11 knots with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots.
And here’s where the Eastern Pacific gets a little… interesting.
The National Hurricane Center expects Julio to strengthen slightly today before being absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle tonight.
So yes.
We’re watching two named storms out there, and one may soon become part of the other.
😂
But I’m not using the “Iselle ate Julio” headline yet.
We need to let her actually eat him first.
Meanwhile, farther out…
There are several other areas of disturbed weather across the Eastern Pacific that the National Hurricane Center is watching.
One tropical wave well south of southern Mexico has a 90% chance of developing over the next seven days and is expected to move generally west-northwestward, well offshore.
There are also additional areas that could become more organized later this week or this weekend.
None of those are a current threat to Los Cabos.
They’re simply part of the increasingly busy Eastern Pacific background as we move through the heart of hurricane season.
And yes, I included some long-range model maps.
You know how I feel about long-range forecasts. 😂
I don’t.
Well… not exactly.
I look at them.
I watch them.
I compare them.
And occasionally I save screenshots of them because they’re interesting.
But I don’t pretend a weather model can tell us what is going to happen a week or two from now with any degree of certainty.
So I’ve included a few longer-range model screenshots below for perspective—not prediction.
These images are not forecasts for Los Cabos, and they are not related to the current Tropical Storm Iselle or Tropical Storm Julio.
They’re simply a look at what some of the numerical weather models are currently suggesting farther down the road.
And, as anyone who has followed weather for a while knows…
That can change.
A lot.
Sometimes spectacularly. 😏
So we’re going to watch, compare, and wait for the atmosphere to tell us what it’s actually going to do.
That’s generally a much better plan than letting a colorful model map on Tuesday decide what your Friday is going to look like.
For now:
🌴 Los Cabos is not under threat from a tropical cyclone.
🌊 Pacific-side swell from Iselle is the immediate local concern.
👀 Julio is about to become part of Iselle’s story.
🌀 And there are more systems worth watching farther out in the Eastern Pacific.
So we’ll keep watching.
Because apparently the Pacific has decided the novela needed another episode. 🙃🌴
And yes, when Iselle actually eats Julio, we’ll have the headline ready. 😏
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