Saturday, September 5 – Tuesday, September 8, 2026
The Los Cabos Civil Protection Directorate is continuing to monitor conditions across the municipality, with the latest extended forecast from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN/CONAGUA) calling for several more days of potentially very heavy rainfall across Baja California Sur.
The current forecast calls for moisture associated with the Mexican Monsoon, atmospheric instability and low-pressure systems, along with the broad circulation of Tropical Cyclone Marie, to contribute to the unsettled conditions.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
🌧️ Rainfall: approximately 2.0–3.0 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
💨 Winds: 12–19 mph, with gusts of 25–37 mph
🌊 Waves: 6.5–9.8 feet
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6 – TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
🌧️ Rainfall: approximately 3.0–5.9 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
💨 Winds: 12–19 mph, with gusts of 25–37 mph
🌊 Waves: 4.9–8.2 feet
And this is the part I really want people to pay attention to:
These are accumulated rainfall forecasts for the broader region, not a prediction that every location in Los Cabos will receive the same amount. Rainfall can vary dramatically over relatively short distances during these types of tropical systems.
Heavy to intense rainfall can also occur in very short periods of time, which means flash flooding, rapidly rising arroyo levels and dangerous water crossings are possible even when a particular location receives much less than the forecast regional total.
The forecast also warns of the possibility of:
• ⚡ Lightning
• 💨 Strong wind gusts
• 🧊 Hail
• 🌊 Rising arroyo and stream levels
• 🪨 Landslides and mudslides
• 🌧️ Flooding, particularly in low-lying areas
• 🌴 Fallen trees and signs from strong wind gusts
If you don’t need to go out during the heaviest rain, don’t. Stay put and let the worst of it pass.
And please remember: never attempt to drive through a flooded arroyo or roadway when you cannot see how deep or fast the water is moving.
I’ll continue watching the actual conditions here in Los Cabos and will share updates as they become available.
Source: Protección Civil de Los Cabos / Official forecast information from SMN-CONAGUA.
And because weather forecasts are forecasts — not guarantees — here is what the current forecast models are showing as of this morning.
The models don’t agree perfectly on exactly when or where the heaviest rain will fall, which is normal with localized tropical rainfall. What they do agree on is that we have a wet few days ahead, with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible through Tuesday.
This is why I’m watching the actual observations as well as the forecast. A weather station can tell us what is happening at one specific location, while the models and official forecasts give us the larger picture. The screenshot above is for Cabo San Lucas. at the time of publishing.
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