September 20th, 2026
If you have been wondering whether hurricane season is actually over because someone in a Facebook group said it ends in October, allow me to gently put that one back on the calendar:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season ends November 30.
No, that does not mean we should expect a parade of hurricanes through November. Late-season tropical systems are less common. But less common is not the same thing as over.
And here we are, September 20.
The tropics have been relatively busy, Los Cabos has already taken an extraordinary amount of water this month, and this morning there are two systems worth watching in the Eastern Pacific.
One has a name.
The other is still waiting for one.
And the story, as usual, is considerably more complicated than a couple of colored blobs on a map.
🌊 First, Let’s Talk About Los Cabos
Before we get to the tropical systems, we need to talk about what is happening right here.
Los Cabos has managed to accumulate 9.55 inches of rain during September so far at the reporting station shown in the data I pulled this morning near Medano Beach. This does not account for the areas that received more, or less.
That’s a lot of water for a place that normally spends much of the year trying to remember what rain looks like.
And this hasn’t required a hurricane making landfall.
We’ve had the ingredients of a very wet pattern — tropical moisture, monsoon-type activity, thunderstorms and chubascos — without a major tropical cyclone coming ashore in Los Cabos.
The result has been significant flooding in parts of the region.
And that’s important because the ground doesn’t care whether the water came from a named storm.
Once you’re already saturated, another round of heavy rain doesn’t need a hurricane attached to it to become a serious problem.
That is also why some of the official messaging coming out locally has become more urgent.
The chief of the Cabo San Lucas fire department has been emphasizing preparedness and paying attention to the official information being issued. And honestly, that makes sense.
At this point in the season, if you live here and you aren’t prepared for the possibility of another significant rain event, now is probably a good time to finish getting prepared.
Not because a disaster is guaranteed.
Because we have already seen what happens when a waterlogged region gets another big dose of rain.
🌀 Enter Tropical Storm Odalys
And now we have a named character.
Tropical Storm Odalys formed early Sunday morning, far out over the eastern Pacific.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 8 AM PDT advisory, Odalys was about 1,310 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest around 9 mph.
Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph, and the storm was gradually strengthening.
There are currently no coastal watches or warnings, and the NHC lists no land hazards from Odalys.
So before anyone starts moving patio furniture:
Breathe.
This is a storm far offshore.
But she is an interesting storm.
Satellite imagery showed increasingly organized deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80°C and developing banding. The environment is also fairly favorable, with very warm water, abundant moisture and low-to-moderate wind shear.
The NHC expects continued strengthening during the next couple of days and forecasts Odalys to become a hurricane by Monday.
The forecast currently takes her generally northwestward before slowing and turning toward the north and northeast later in the week.
And here’s where the atmospheric writers start arguing over the ending.
The NHC specifically notes significant uncertainty in the track later in the forecast period, partly because of the evolving upper-level trough over the western United States and partly because of another tropical cyclone developing much farther east.
Yes.
Another one.
🌀 And Then There’s the One Without a Name
Southwest of southwestern Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is watching a broad area of low pressure designated EP99.
It currently has a 90% chance of developing within 48 hours and a 90% chance within seven days.
This system is located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The NHC says conditions remain conducive for development, and the system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next day or so.
The current expectation is for it to move eastward off the coast of southern Mexico Monday, but it could begin moving back toward the coast by late Tuesday.
That’s worth watching.
Not because we know what it is going to do.
We don’t.
In fact, the NHC is specifically telling interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to monitor its progress.
And this is exactly where I like to remind everyone of something I’ve said for years:
A model map is not a forecast.
It is model guidance.
There is a reason the NHC cone exists. There is a reason official forecasters update these things repeatedly. And there is a reason a forecast five days from now can look very different from the one issued today.
The atmospheric writers haven’t finished the script.
🌀 Two Systems. One Complication.
Odalys and EP99 are separated by a considerable distance right now, but they are not completely independent characters.
The NHC’s discussion for Odalys specifically mentions the potential influence of the developing tropical cyclone to its east.
That interaction could affect Odalys’ intensity later in the week depending on how the two systems evolve and where they ultimately go.
This is one of those situations where watching both systems is more useful than obsessing over either one individually.
And yes, the models are already producing a rather impressive spaghetti bowl.
That doesn’t mean every line represents a possible future.
It means the atmosphere has given the models a problem to solve.
Let them solve it.
🌧️ Meanwhile, Los Cabos Has Its Own Storyline
This is the part I don’t want lost in all the hurricane graphics.
You can look at the satellite image and see Odalys sitting hundreds and hundreds of miles southwest of Baja.
You can look at the NHC map and see no tropical cyclone anywhere near Los Cabos.
And yet Los Cabos can still have weather problems.
We have already had nearly 10 inches of rain this month at the reporting station referenced above, severe flooding in portions of the region, and a landscape that has been repeatedly absorbing water.
That means another tropical disturbance doesn’t need to come ashore here to matter.
Tropical moisture can feed into the region.
Thunderstorms can develop locally.
Chubascos can dump enormous amounts of rain in one place while another neighborhood gets almost nothing.
And after what we’ve already experienced this month, even a relatively ordinary-looking rain forecast deserves some attention.
🏖️ And Yes, The Beaches Are Part of This Story Too
Today’s ZOFEMAT beach reports are a pretty good visual reminder that this isn’t simply a theoretical weather discussion.
In Cabo San Lucas, numerous beaches are currently flying red or yellow flags.
San José del Cabo has the same situation, with several beaches under red flag conditions and others yellow.
For anyone visiting:
Red means swimming is prohibited.
Yellow means the beach is considered hazardous and swimming is permitted only with caution.
Beach conditions can change quickly, especially when tropical systems are active offshore or when local weather produces strong surf and currents.
So check the flags before getting in the water rather than assuming that because the sun is shining, the ocean got the memo.
It didn’t.
đź“» A Little Weather Time Travel
And this is where I have to laugh at myself a little.
Back in September 2015, I wrote a weather update that began with:
“This weekend’s weather… Looks like we might see some rain!”
I was talking about a relatively nearby area of interest with a 40% chance of tropical development, noting that the long-range models weren’t showing much and that we were all a little “gun shy at trusting the weatherman.”
I also mentioned checking whether the Navy was paying attention to the system.
And then, because apparently I was writing a weather report while simultaneously running a radio station, I proceeded to tell everyone about Live Cabo Radio programming and offered to interrupt the regular schedule with rainy-day music.
I was clearly multitasking.
Eleven years later, some things have changed.
Some things haven’t.
We’re still watching tropical disturbances.
We’re still watching models disagree.
We’re still reminding people that a forecast several days out is not carved in stone.
And we’re still living in a place where San José del Cabo can get a downpour while Cabo San Lucas is looking at stars.
🌀 So Where Are We Now?
Right now, the Eastern Pacific has:
Tropical Storm Odalys — strengthening, expected to become a hurricane Monday, and currently far offshore with no land hazards.
EP99 — a broad disturbance southwest of Mexico with a 90% chance of development over both 48 hours and seven days, with its eventual movement still something to watch.
And Los Cabos — already extremely wet for September, with serious flooding having occurred and local officials urging residents to remain attentive and prepared.
That’s the part that matters most.
We don’t need to know today exactly what either tropical system will do five days from now.
We don’t need to choose a favorite model.
We don’t need to panic over every spaghetti line.
We simply need to pay attention.
Because hurricane season isn’t over.
September isn’t over.
And the ground in Los Cabos has already had quite enough water for one month.
The atmospheric writers are still at work.
And judging by the latest draft…
Act III may be getting interesting.
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