Hey everyone — the first 2026 Eastern Pacific outlooks are out, and yes, they suggest an above-average season, with roughly 18–21 named storms forecast in the basin.
Before anyone jumps from that to “Cabo is doomed,” a little perspective.
First: this is a seasonal forecast, not a landfall forecast.
These are projected basin-wide activity ranges — not a prediction that Los Cabos gets hit, or even that all forecast numbers verify exactly. (This post was Written by Live Cabo (Just Jenn). If sharing in other groups, please keep attribution with the post.)
Forecast activity does not equal local impacts.
What about El Niño?
We’re currently in neutral conditions, with models suggesting El Niño could develop later this year.
That may support a busier Eastern Pacific season, but El Niño is not an automatic Cabo disaster signal.
Storm tracks, wind shear, steering patterns, and where ocean warmth is located all matter.
And speaking of that…
“The Pacific is warm” needs context.
The Pacific is enormous.
Warm water where matters.
A broad statement like “the Pacific is warm” tells you very little without location and atmospheric context.
The geography people forget
Mexico’s Pacific coastline is huge, and Los Cabos is a very small target.
Even in active seasons, many storms:
• stay offshore
• recurve out to sea
• weaken before reaching Baja
• or affect mainland Mexico far from us
More storms in the basin does not automatically mean more Cabo impacts.
Bottom line
2026 may give us more systems to monitor.
That means stay informed and be prepared — not panic before the season even starts.
As always, I’ll track the season here with local perspective, station data, and zero hype … to be continued.
Just Jenn ♥️
Live Cabo
#LosCabosWeather #HurricaneSeason2026 #EasternPacific #CaboWeather #TropicalWeather #LiveCabo