Hey everyone! Simon has officially entered “Where the heck am I?” mode, and a new system farther south has formed and is forecast to strengthen rapidly. Tuesday has brought us another plot twist.
🌀 Simon: The Small, Stubborn Hurricane That Needs a Map
After brushing the west-central Mexico coast as a Category 4 hurricane, Simon has weakened to Category 1. As of the 11 AM MST NHC advisory, Simon was near 20.2°N, 107.4°W — approximately 110 miles west of Cabo Corrientes and southwest of Las Islas Marías — with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a central pressure of 977 mb.
And he’s barely moving. Simon is drifting west at approximately 2 mph.
Over the past several days, Simon’s proximity to the Mexican coast has allowed the high terrain of the Sierra Madre to interfere with his eastern side. His wind field has contracted dramatically, with hurricane-force winds extending only about 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching about 45 miles.
Satellite imagery continues to show a small eye at times, but the eyewall has been open on the western side. Some wind shear and dry-air intrusion may also be disrupting the inner core. Because Simon is so small, intensity estimates have varied considerably — another complication for the forecast.
The track forecast? A tangled plate of spaghetti.
Simon is caught near a saddle point, or col, in the steering flow. In plain English, competing high-pressure systems are influencing the hurricane from different directions, leaving very little net steering to move him along.
That helps explain why the models are all over the place. Some solutions show a slow loop or prolonged stall; others favor a northwestward track, followed by a later turn north or northeast. Longer-range possibilities include a move toward mainland Mexico, the Gulf of California, or a track that stays farther south.
The current NHC forecast shows little net movement over the next day or two, followed by a more northward turn later in the week as a cutoff low moves into the southwestern United States. But confidence in both track and intensity remains very low.
Simon is not following a straightforward path, and the forecast could change as the steering pattern evolves.
Current watches
- Hurricane Watch: Las Islas Marías and the mainland coast from north of Escuinapa to Bahía Tempehuaya.
- Tropical Storm Watch: From Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa.
The NHC says interests in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue monitoring updates, as changes to watches and warnings may be needed.
The current rainfall forecast for Simon calls for 1–2 inches, with isolated totals of 3 inches, across parts of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Friday. Large swells and dangerous surf and rip currents remain another concern along portions of Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coasts.
🌪️ New System: Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E — Future Trudy?
Meet the newest character in this season’s novela.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E has formed south of southern Mexico, near 9.8°N, 96.5°W. At the 9 AM CST advisory, it was approximately 540 miles southeast of Acapulco, moving northwest at around 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
There are currently no coastal watches or warnings for this system, but interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should keep an eye on its development.
And here’s where things get interesting.
The environment ahead of the depression is exceptionally favorable for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting rapid intensification, with the system expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night and a major hurricane by Friday. The official forecast takes it to Category 4 strength later this week.
That is a forecast, not a guarantee — but the model support for significant strengthening is substantial. Several ensemble members also bring the system to Category 4 or stronger.
If it reaches tropical-storm strength and receives the next available Eastern Pacific name, it will become Trudy.
The track forecast becomes less certain later in the week. The depression is expected to continue northwestward initially, with a possible turn toward the north-northwest later. Depending on how the larger atmospheric pattern evolves — and how Simon’s own track develops — the new system could approach the Mexican coast over the weekend.
Swells from this system are also expected to begin affecting portions of southern Mexico later this week.
The Tuesday takeaway
Simon is the immediate watch-the-watches system for west-central Mexico, with a highly uncertain track and dangerous surf conditions. Farther south, future Trudy is the system to watch for potentially rapid intensification.
As for Baja California Sur, Simon’s current forecast does not establish a direct hit on Los Cabos, but the NHC continues to advise interests in the state to monitor updates. With Simon moving so slowly and the guidance spread so wide, this is a forecast that deserves attention as it evolves.
The models are arguing, Simon has misplaced his map, and Trudy may be preparing for a very dramatic entrance.