Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Update
The Eastern Pacific has two very different storms keeping forecasters busy. Simon is wandering around offshore with seemingly nowhere in particular to be, while Trudy is organizing quickly and is forecast to become a major hurricane later this week.
And if you’re trying to figure out when a storm might reach Cabo or Los Cabos, today’s forecast comes with an important caveat: there is still a great deal we don’t know about Simon’s eventual track. Let’s look at what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is saying, what the models are suggesting, and what that famous cone actually means.
🌀 Hurricane Simon: Small, Stubborn, and Still Meandering
As of the NHC’s 8 AM MST advisory Wednesday, Simon was located near 19.7°N, 108.1°W, approximately 165 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes and 250 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 90 mph, making Simon a Category 1 hurricane. The storm was drifting southwest at just 2 mph.
Simon is a remarkably compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend only about 10 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend approximately 35 miles. That small size makes Simon particularly sensitive to changes in its environment, so its intensity can fluctuate quickly.
This morning’s satellite imagery showed Simon losing some organization. Its tiny eye has become less distinct, and the center is near the northern edge of the surrounding thunderstorms, consistent with the effects of northerly wind shear.
So where is Simon going?
That’s the million-dollar question.
Simon is caught in a region of very weak steering currents. With little atmospheric flow to push it along, the hurricane is expected to drift slowly southwestward for another day or two.
Beyond that, the forecast becomes considerably more complicated. A trough developing over the western United States is expected to influence the steering pattern later in the week, potentially turning Simon northward or north-northwestward. However, the forecast models still disagree about when that turn will happen and where Simon will ultimately go.
The latest official forecast brings Simon northward later in the week, toward Baja California Sur, while also calling for weakening as stronger wind shear develops. The NHC expects Simon to eventually weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches Baja California Sur, with further weakening possible over the weekend.
That is the current forecast—not a guarantee. The NHC explicitly describes confidence in the track as lower than normal, and additional adjustments are likely.
There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, the NHC says watches or warnings could become necessary for portions of Baja California Sur over the next day or two.
Simon is also generating large swells that will affect portions of the west-central Mexican coast and Baja California Sur over the next several days. Dangerous surf and rip currents remain a concern even where the storm’s center stays well offshore.
The takeaway: Simon’s current position tells us where it is. It does not tell us with certainty where it will end up.
🌀 Tropical Storm Trudy: The One to Watch for Rapid Intensification
Farther south, Tropical Storm Trudy is becoming better organized—and the NHC expects it to strengthen quickly.
At 9 AM CST Wednesday, Trudy was located near 11.5°N, 99.5°W, approximately 375 miles south of Acapulco. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 60 mph, and the storm was moving west-northwest at about 13 mph.
Satellite imagery shows improving convective organization, and environmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening.
The NHC forecasts Trudy to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Friday. The official forecast calls for sustained winds reaching approximately 130 mph by Friday, although intensity forecasts can change.
What about Trudy’s track?
Trudy is expected to turn more toward the northwest and then north-northwest as the larger atmospheric pattern evolves. Its eventual path may also be influenced by its interaction with Simon, adding another layer of complexity to an already challenging forecast.
The current NHC forecast brings Trudy toward the coast of southwestern Mexico around Saturday. The agency warns of increasing potential for wind, rain, and storm-surge impacts as Trudy approaches, but the exact location and magnitude of those impacts remain uncertain.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Trudy at the time of the advisory. The NHC says watches may be required for portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico later today or tonight.
For residents in those areas, this is the time to pay attention to official updates and be prepared to act if local authorities issue instructions.
The takeaway: Confidence is relatively high that Trudy will strengthen significantly. Confidence in its eventual track and the precise locations that could experience impacts is much lower.
🗺️ Let’s Talk About That Cone of Uncertainty
The NHC’s forecast cone is one of the most recognizable graphics in tropical weather reporting—and one of the most frequently misunderstood.
First, a quick terminology note: the official product is the cone of uncertainty. Around here, I may call it the cone of concern, because the potential hazards are what matter to people living in or visiting affected areas.
But what does the cone actually show?
It represents the probable path of the storm’s center—not the storm’s size, its wind field, or the full area where hazardous conditions may occur.
The cone is constructed using historical forecast errors. It is designed so that the storm center remains inside the cone approximately two-thirds of the time, based on the average errors in the NHC’s track forecasts over the preceding five years.
In practical terms, that means:
- The cone gets wider farther into the future. Forecast uncertainty generally increases with time.
- The storm can affect places outside the cone. Wind, heavy rain, storm surge, large waves, and dangerous rip currents can extend well beyond the projected path of the center.
- Being inside the cone does not guarantee a direct hit. The cone represents a range of possible center locations, not a promise that the storm will cross every place inside it.
- Being outside the cone does not mean you’re safe. Hazardous conditions can occur beyond its boundaries.
And remember: the cone is not a measure of how confident forecasters are about every aspect of a storm. Track uncertainty and intensity uncertainty are different things.
That distinction matters particularly with Simon. Forecasters are dealing with a tiny hurricane, weak steering currents, and substantial disagreement among the models about its future movement. Trudy presents a different challenge: the forecast strongly favors rapid strengthening, while its longer-range track remains uncertain.
A cone is a useful forecasting tool, but it isn’t a force field—and it cannot tell you exactly what conditions a particular beach, resort, airport, or neighborhood will experience.
✈️ A Friendly Note About Travel Questions
I understand why people want a definite answer when they have a trip booked, are already in Los Cabos, or are deciding whether to change their plans.
Questions like “When will the storm reach Cabo?” and “Will my flight be affected?” are completely understandable. Unfortunately, they are not always answerable several days in advance—and right now, Simon’s forecast is especially uncertain.
Even the National Hurricane Center, with its forecasting models, satellite data, aircraft observations, and meteorologists, cannot yet determine Simon’s eventual track with high confidence. We cannot assume that Simon will directly affect Cabo, but we also cannot rule out changes to the forecast as the steering pattern evolves.
I share the official forecasts, explain the graphics, follow the model trends, and report meaningful changes. What I cannot do is give you a guaranteed storm arrival time or make a reliable decision about your individual flight, hotel, or travel plans. No one can promise that level of certainty from the current forecast.
For travel decisions, check the latest official NHC advisories at hurricanes.gov, follow instructions from local authorities, and contact your airline or accommodation provider directly about their policies and any operational changes.
I’ll keep reporting what the forecast actually says—and I’ll be just as clear about what it doesn’t say.
The Bottom Line
Simon is a small hurricane moving slowly southwest, with a highly uncertain track and a possible northward turn later this week. Trudy is strengthening and is forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday, with a potential approach to southwestern Mexico over the weekend.
Both systems deserve attention, but for different reasons. Simon’s future movement remains difficult to pin down; Trudy’s rapid intensification is the more confident part of its forecast, while its eventual path still needs watching.
The models will keep running, the NHC will keep updating its forecasts, and we’ll keep sorting through the information.
Because in the Eastern Pacific, the forecast is a moving target—and the cone is a guide, not a guarantee.
Stay informed, follow official updates, and don’t let a single forecast graphic tell the whole story.
