Invest 94e and why it must suck to be a professional weather forecaster 

UPDATE:  New forecast computer models just totally proved my point because I. Just. Can’t. Even. This, is part of why I do what I do.  This blog is for entertainment not just for factual info (when it really matters)  Also, if you rush over to windyty right away you can see there will either be twins or one monster – I kid you not. OH! Totally forgot – I’ve heard fishing has been incredible! For reals. I prefer wahoo (HINT HINT)


end edit ~3:49pm


It’s no picnic being an armchair weather woman these days either.

Okay sooooo, it’s September. We ALL totally monitor every single cloud that appears in September. It’s exhausting and for some there isn’t enough wine to get through the month.

So we’ve got an invest with preliminary forecast models.

Well. That’s pretty vague, are we getting rain or not?

Well, it’s not little so probably …


At least a few stray clouds will make it to us if we can believe WU 😂 #sorrynotsorry #nofaith in their rain predicting abilities. Seriously. And let us not forget we still get clouds visiting from mainland and sometimes they magically appear over the Sea of Cortez and offer surprise rain like Sunday! 10% of zero inches our butts!

Since the invention of windyty everyone now knows everything. 🙄 That being said – and I’m totally really and truly serious because I like to learn – Would someone please explain to me where you see a cat rating when looking at a storm because the mph on the graph only goes as high as 64mph. I’m feeling pretty stupid that I’m the only one that doesn’t see it. Oh, well there is a cool new feature on that site. We can now see systems using difference computer models. See example below:

That is using the computer model GFS, now let’s look at the same time, but the ECMWF model

See? Two totally different scenarios! Two totally different Lat/Long and intensities. So which one is it? Grrrrr

The above image is also, from the ECMWF which is the euro model I’ve been so fond of lately. Doesn’t really show much. But then, it’s just too early to know what a storm will do, when it wants to do it and how it wants to do it.

I think, hurricanes are redheads.😃😃😃

There is another site kinda popular but accuracy is iffy “long term”. The graphics are way more accurate shot term and current. 😊  so let’s jump ahead and see what Tuesdsy may or may not – look like out at sea … don’t go getting nervous by the following graphics. They in no way indicate where the center of this not even named storm is going I’m just using them and the ones above as an example on how sucky it must be to be a “pro” because there are too many variables

Above shows possible wind speeds on Tuesday with possible location. (If I kept going it’d show it going more north than west but I’m sticking with Tuesday scenarios today)

Okay, now this is an indication of intensity. Tuesday, if there is ANY accuracy, shows this system will be a tropical storm. See, we need to see the millibars drop to below 980 to be a cat 1.

What about waves?

Well, it’s a good idea to plan avoiding the surf early next week as we are looking at minimum 6-9 foot swells which can be dangerous. Very.

Image below is pretty current showing highs and low air pressure.

Is this system overload?  Are you freaking?  Don’t. It’s not even a named system. We have no official forecast and I’m already exhausted from hearing my husbands phone ringing with people freaking that there is a cat 2 coming? (I get the PM’s) People, stop making crap up. Please. Don’t get me wrong, the site has its usefulness but no one ever knows what a storm will do until it’s done it. Like a Redhead. 😂  Now, it’s just an area of low pressure that the NHC is investing time effort and money to monitor.

Point is, if the people with fancy degrees don’t know, none of us do. Just – breathe. You still have your emergency provisions anyways, right? 

So … Before I left for work today I started dinner. Super simple recipe. Cup water, cup apple cider vinegar, 2 large jars sauerkraut, lots of kielbasa, a touch of brown sugar and a few veggies to make it hearty. In the slowcooker. It’ll be nice for dinner to be waiting for me after a long day at work. 😊

Okay – let’s conquer Thursday! ~ Jenn

Oh … we ARE a radio station so let’s add a redhead video because – well, why not? I like Garbage. It’s totally appropo … without any weather I’d have nothing to blog about.  I could do without a hurricane though.

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