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I started this yesterday …. but this needs a Cabo sunrise perspective so I’m starting over with coffee in hand while the sun comes up just behind a cruise ship. Not a bad way to start any morning I must say.
Today marks the official first day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season which ends November 30th. This is the list of names as highlighted copied/pasted from the NHC
The list of names for 2018 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
Aletta a-LET-ah Miriam MEER-ee-uhm
Bud buhd Norman NOR-muhn
Carlotta kar-LOT-uh Olivia oh-LEEV-ee-uh
Daniel DAN-yuhl Paul pall
Emilia eh-MILL-ya Rosa ROH-zuh
Fabio FAH-bee-o Sergio SIR-gee-oh
Gilma GIL-mah Tara TAIR-uh
Hector HEHK-tor Vicente vee-CEN-tay
Ileana ill-ay-AH-nah Willa WIH-lah
John jahn Xavier ZAY-vee-ur
Kristy KRIS-tee Yolanda yo-LAHN-da
Lane layne Zeke zeek
So if the probability forecast is accurate from accuweather we might see named storms make it all the way to the name Sergio. We = the East Pacific Ocean not we as in Los Cabos. The National Hurricane Center included a reminder that we average 15 named storms, 8 Hurricane with 4 being major (Cat 3 or stronger). There is a statement here : https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
We all kinda figured once we learned we were going into a neutral ENSO cycle we might see an increase in numbers – okay well I did – I can not speak for others … I didn’t blog about it but had mentioned in comments here and there on Facebook that we were now in the neutral ENSO cycle looking at a possible El Nino towards the end of the season/year. Sigh.
I had been reading some Spanish language blogs the past few weeks (if I recalled them I’d link them) and they were all leading up to this as well … link to source of graphic above with info but turn down your volume because they have a video that auto plays that is obnoxious. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-east-pacific-hurricane-outlook-active-season-to-yield-frequent-tropical-cyclones/70004942
Now, I know this news freaks people out. Part of me says be freaked and get stocked up and do all the prep work we’ve talked about for years since before Odile, but the other part of me wants you to remain super chill while prepping for the season because … it’s a pretty big ocean.
From this point forward there was about a 1,000 words of ranting I’ve deleted. A pound of chocolate later it seems ridiculous to include it.
For those that may be new to this blog or my style of talking weather, I do this very elementary because often, I’m learning and share what I learn.
The Pacific Ocean is really big. It’s huuuuge. It’s the largest ocean on the earth.
We are in the Pacific … the EAST Pacific …
If we just look at the shaded area above … along the coast of Mexico 🇲🇽, we can see where the National Hurricane Center (who has yet to issue their forecast for our region for 2018) monitors storms that may effect us, in Los Cabos.
Let’s do a close up … we are in the red circle ⭕️ below
That’s a whole lot of Ocean for 16-19 named storms to form, 8-12 of them becoming hurricanes, that 4-6 of them could become Cat 3’s or stronger winds and lower pressure for, and a whole lot of coastline for 3-5 of them to possibly make landfall for. Odds for one region to get picked on repeatedly by weather should be low. Hopefully we’ve had our share for this decade in Los Cabos.
There really is no reason to panic (I really need to stock up on Trader Joe’s pound plus sized bars of dark chocolate … unrelated I’m just making shopping lists) but do please be prepared. I’ve survived earthquakes, Hurricanes, and other more personal disasters so being prepared for anything is part of my make up. I’ll keep this brief and not include links to prep lists today, and save them for later. It just never hurts to try to have more than you need … worst thing in our region? You over shop and donate it at the end of the season to people that need it.
But do keep this is mind … You don’t want to be the guy that doesn’t think a storm will come and have to trade diapers your child thankfully just decided he/she didn’t need and wanted to use the big potty for scraps of food and water because the weather experts with diplomas and titles told you we would not get smacked (true story but not mine from Odile). Make your lists of what you need for your family and a few extra people with regards to food and water.
Don’t be the person that has debris in their yard … even gale force winds from a storm offshore totally not coming towards you can do damage. Heck, my furniture on my fab patio starts knocking over at only 30mph. During Odile, I lost an enormous flower pot that I presume at minimum weighed more than I do and have no clue where it ended up. Could’ve been worse … one neighbor lost a propane tank (it vanished) and we found another neighbors fridge in the middle of the road. Totally serious.
Clearly, I’m still living just after Odile emotionally. But I also recall Lydia which produced very heavy rains resulting devastating floods. I wasn’t here for Juliette. I briefly mentioned Juliette in my last blog update that you find in the menu if you are interested when I was thinking out loud about ENSO cycles … we all get excited about La Niña which doesn’t make us safe(r) and people become complacent yet freak about El Niño because the water is warmer which brings stronger storms … I have a working hypothesis that neutral years we get smacked around more …
So locals, start prepping. Those planning a vacation for this summer? Just buy travel insurance in the event you have to change dates or destinations. There is truly no need to panic. We also generally don’t see much in our immediate region until September when it’s too warm for the average vacationer anyways) And the lists I’ll share as we get further into the season might be of benefit to you where you live.
I need to refresh my coffee and get ready for the day.
Have a great one.
This is an unofficial one in Spanish …
(I’ll fix spelling and grammar later 😊)