Hello and welcome to the official start of the 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season! 🌊🌀
May 15th is here — time to start watching the waters off Mexico and Central America as the season begins.
Current ENSO Situation (NOAA update issued May 14)
We are currently in ENSO-neutral conditions following the final La Niña Advisory. However, the tropical Pacific is warming quickly:
• Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures are already running around +0.4°C to +0.5°C
• A large pool of warmer-than-average water is building below the surface
• NOAA currently gives El Niño an 82% chance of developing between May and July and persisting through the rest of 2026
Current Sea Surface Temperatures
A quick but important note about SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures):
The temperatures shown on these maps are not the same thing as the shallow water you feel standing at the beach with your toes in the sand. SST measurements used for tropical forecasting represent temperatures across the upper ocean layer offshore — generally the top several meters of the ocean, and in some forecasting discussions extending down to around 150 feet (45 meters) when subsurface heat content is involved.
That deeper ocean warmth is part of what helps fuel tropical systems.
For storms to strengthen or maintain intensity near Southern Baja, we generally look for offshore waters around 27–28°C (80–82°F) or warmer.
Right now, waters near Los Cabos are still relatively cool for the season, which is completely normal for mid-May. We’ll be watching how quickly conditions change as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Important Reminder
No matter what phase we’re in — El Niño, La Niña, or neutral — preparation always matters. Some of the strongest impacts in Los Cabos history have happened during neutral or transition years.
As always:
✔️ Have your hurricane kit and emergency plan ready
✔️ Follow updates from the National Hurricane Center and local authorities
✔️ Keep an eye on forecasts throughout the season
I’ll continue posting clear, factual updates and local context throughout hurricane season as usual.
Last year somehow turned into hurricane season: the novela. Are we doing that again in 2026? 🌊🎭 Please drop a comment below ❤️
Follow updates from the National Hurricane Center, local authorities, and trusted regional weather sources with long-term and first-hand experience covering Baja and the Eastern Pacific
Drop any questions below, and here’s to a safe and well-prepared 2026 season. 🌴
#HurricaneSeason2026 #LosCabos #CaboSanLucas