September 3rd, 2026 – The Pacific is refusing to give us a quiet chapter.

Yesterday we were watching three hurricanes—or the potential for three hurricanes—across the Pacific, with Lowell becoming the second Category 5 of the season and Karina still holding onto Category 4 strength.

This morning, the cast has shifted again.

Marie is now a hurricane. Karina is weakening. Lowell remains a major hurricane.

And here in Los Cabos, Marie has already made sure she isn’t just a character on a satellite image.

She’s been sending rain.

So let’s get caught up.

🌀 MARIE: SHE FINALLY GOT HER ACT TOGETHER

Marie spent much of yesterday looking like she wanted to become a hurricane but couldn’t quite get the inner core organized.

That changed overnight.

The latest NHC discussion says Marie’s structure improved significantly, with convection becoming increasingly symmetric around the center and colder cloud tops wrapping nearly completely around the core. Her intensity estimates also climbed, and NHC set her initial intensity at 80 kt—90 mph.

At 8 AM Thursday, September 3, Marie was located about 410 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph.

She’s packing 90-mph sustained winds, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching as far as 230 miles.

And Marie isn’t finished strengthening yet.

NHC expects some additional strengthening over the next day or so, with the official forecast taking her to approximately 105 mph before the environment becomes increasingly hostile and weakening begins.

But the interesting part of Marie’s story isn’t just intensity.

It’s track uncertainty.

For the next couple of days, the forecast remains generally west-northwestward. After that, the atmospheric writers start arguing again.

A weakening ridge and an upper-level low approaching the West Coast could determine just how much Marie turns northward—or whether she stays on a more west-northwestward course. NHC says confidence in the longer-range track is lower than normal.

Translation:

The next few days are reasonably straightforward. The ending is still being written.

🌧️ AND MARIE HAS ALREADY BEEN VISITING LOS CABOS

This is where things get particularly interesting for us.

Marie doesn’t have to come anywhere near Cabo to affect Cabo.

Her outer circulation has already been producing heavy rain in the region.

MetMex reported rainfall from private weather stations during Marie’s outer-band activity, including:

• El Tezal: 66.3 mm (2.61 inches)
• Lomas del Sol 2da Etapa: 52.1 mm (2.05 inches)
• UABCS, CSL: 52.1 mm (2.05 inches)

And this is worth explaining because those numbers aren’t coming from the public weather-station network we were accustomed to having available.

These are readings from private stations, reported by MetMex. Credit to MetMex for the data.

And before anyone asks for a neat little Cabo rainfall total:

We don’t have one yet.

We don’t yet know exactly how much rain was received across Los Cabos last night and during the early hours this morning. Rainfall here can be incredibly localized, and one neighborhood can get hammered while another gets very little.

What we do know is that Marie’s outer bands have been producing significant rain, and showers are expected to continue.

So if your neighborhood got soaked while your friend’s neighborhood stayed relatively dry…

Welcome to Cabo. 😂 (I know, it’s not funny).

🏖️ BEACH CONDITIONS: CHECK THE FLAGS

And while we’re talking about Marie’s local effects, the beaches remain part of the story.

Today’s ZOFEMAT reports show black flags at the listed beaches in Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, while the Zona Norte locations shown are under yellow flags.

The flag system is important:

🔴 Red: Swimming prohibited
🟡 Yellow: Dangerous conditions — swim with caution
🟢 Green: Good conditions for swimming
⚫ Black: Beach closed
⚪ White: Jellyfish present

With Marie generating significant swell and dangerous surf/rip-current conditions along portions of the Baja California Peninsula, this is not the day to ignore the flag because the ocean looks inviting.

Follow the lifeguards and Protección Civil.

🌀 KARINA: THE QUEEN IS FINALLY LOSING HER CROWN

And then there’s Karina.

Remember when she went absolutely berserk?

Category 4.
Annular structure.
Huge, almost bizarrely symmetrical appearance.

Well…

She’s coming back down.

Karina’s latest satellite presentation shows warming cloud tops and a more cloud-filled eye. She still has an annular appearance, but that structure is beginning to break down.

Her current intensity is 115 mph, Category 3, and she is moving west at about 10–12 mph. 

And this is where the environment finally starts winning.

Karina is moving toward cooler waters and increasingly drier air, with wind shear expected to increase as well.

NHC expects her weakening to accelerate after about 24 hours, and she is forecast to become post-tropical by Day 4. 

So Karina’s story is transitioning from intensity to structure.

She had quite the character arc.

And honestly?

What a character.

🌀 LOWELL: STILL THE MONSTER IN THE ROOM

And then we have Lowell.

Because apparently Category 5 wasn’t enough drama for one storm season.

Lowell exploded into Category 5 strength yesterday with an initial intensity of 140 kt, supported by a remarkably compact structure, a warm circular eye and a symmetric ring of extremely deep convection.

This morning, Lowell has weakened somewhat—but 140 mph still makes him a Category 4 major hurricane.

At 5 AM HST Thursday, Lowell was about 450 miles south-southwest of Hilo, moving west at roughly 10 mph, with a minimum pressure of 945 mb.

NHC expects Lowell to remain a major hurricane for the next several days, although some fluctuations are likely as internal structural changes—including possible eyewall replacement cycles—play out.

And now his storyline gets complicated.

Lowell should continue westward for another couple of days before a developing upper-level trough erodes the ridge steering him.

Then comes the big turn.

North. Or north-northeast.

The exact timing and location of that turn remain uncertain. NHC specifically notes that average track errors are around 150 nautical miles at Day 4 and 200 nautical miles at Day 5, which is a very useful reminder not to treat a long-range line on a map like it’s engraved in stone.

However, Hawaii is now officially in the conversation.

NHC says Lowell could still be at or near major-hurricane strength when he moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night, although the exact impacts remain uncertain.

So this is one to keep watching.

Very closely.

🌊 AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS NOT DONE WITH US

There is another common thread running through all three storms:

the ocean remembers.

Marie is generating swell toward Baja.

Karina’s swell continues to propagate westward across the Pacific.

And Lowell is generating dangerous surf and rip currents around Hawaii, with swells expected to increase early next week depending on his eventual track.

A tropical cyclone doesn’t have to make landfall to make itself felt.

Sometimes the storm center is hundreds of miles away and the ocean is already delivering the message.

🌦️ SO WHAT ABOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN CABO?

The various forecast models are still showing showers popping up through the coming days, but—as usual—they don’t all agree on exactly when, where, or how much.

And that’s okay.

Models are guidance, not prophecy.

For now, the important part is much simpler:

Marie has already produced significant rain in parts of Los Cabos.

More showers are possible.

And we don’t yet have a complete picture of last night’s rainfall totals.

So we’ll keep watching the skies, the observations, the official forecasts—and yes, the atmospheric writers.

Because apparently they have decided that September needs a plot.

🌪️ THE CURRENT CAST

MARIE: 🌀 Hurricane, 90 mph — strengthening a little more before weakening begins.

KARINA: 🌀 Category 3, 115 mph — weakening as she moves into drier air, cooler water and increasing shear.

LOWELL: 🌀 Category 4, 140 mph — still a major hurricane, with a complicated turn ahead.

Three storms.

Three completely different storylines.

And one Pacific that clearly has zero interest in behaving normally.

More to come.

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