Graphic cracks me up as the season doesn’t start until May 15th but I was drawing a blank on which image to use.
Colorado State has put out their forecast. It’s an early forecast, but it’s an early indicator due to the East Pacific’s ENSO cycle currently being in a weak El Nino … they think the Atlantic will see 13 named storms, 5 of which will be hurricanes … and 2 of the 5 will be “major” hurricanes.
AccuWeather has out it’s predictions for the Atlantic as well. 12 to 14 named storms, and of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes and two to four are forecast to become major hurricanes.
So … basically the same guess/
What does this mean for us? That depends on so many things but a major factor is whether or not ENSO remains in a weak El Nino or becomes moderate … and how long we will have the warmer waters. Right now there is a 60% chance we will have El Nino conditions through summer.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov hasn’t given us anything yet, however, it’s typical during an El Nino event, that we might see 12-19’ish named storms, where 6-11 of those become hurricanes and 3-7 of those hurricanes become major hurricanes.
I know, right? That tells us NOTHING. (The E. Pac. Ocean is pretty darned big and most storms stay far far away from shore … just something to remember when we see forecasts so at not to cause panic)
We may be in the East Pacific, but remember the teeter totter effect between the two oceans during hurricane season.
All we’ve got really, to nutshell it, is that the SST’s are up across most of the E. Pacific … but the blob is not as big as it has been in the past at present time and I’m not sure how many care at this moment about wind anomalies or that I could do it without turning it into a song about being stuck in the middle of clowns and jokers (winds from West Pacific mixing it up with winds from the East).
I could babble all day … but I’d like to have soooomething to blog about another day.
For those that don’t know, I am Just Jenn, station manager to an online internet radio station … https://livecaboradio.com/