Counting Storms – We Are Going Neutral

EDIT- we are official neural. END EDIT

I should probably start with we are not currently expecting foul weather in the next 10’ish days in Los Cabos, BCS.  Okay the 5-day from the NHC tells another tale for the ocean but the “forecast models” we see on sites like Windy look good for now as far as “we” are concerned; the LOCAL waters are not warm enough to sustain a hurricane and the winds are pretty much still in our favor. .



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While the official charts have not been updated, apparently, we’ve downgraded from an El Nino ENSO to Neutral or “normal” sea temps … not too hot, not too cold, it’s juuuuuust right. Just right to stay the same as expected from the original forecasts, most likely.

What does that mean to those of us in the East Pacific in term of how many storms we should anticipate and how strong they will be? Not much difference between warm and normal years, unfortunately.

EL NINO averages since 2007   17 named storms, 10 became hurricanes, 8 of those major.

NEUTRAL averages since 2007 18 named storms, 10 became hurricanes, 5 of those major.

LA NINA averages since 2007   13 named storms, 6 became hurricanes, 3 of those major.


As a reminder, we were given a very broad forecast of 15-22 named storms, 8-13 might become hurricanes, and 4-8 of those, could become a cat 3 or stronger (see above).

We’ve (east pacific ocean) had 7 named storms so far, 4 have become hurricanes and 2 of those have been major. (3 tropical storms, 2 cat 1’s and 2 cat 4’s)

Counting down with such a spread in the forecast is kinda hard.  We could be waiting on 8 more named storms, 4 that will be hurricane strength with 2 of those being major.  We could also be waiting on 15 more named storms, 9 of those could be hurricanes with …

I know you stopped paying attention. You get it.  All in all, it’s a pretty big ocean so … “we” doesn’t mean Los Cabos, it means the entire East Pacific Ocean.  I’m getting redundant on that point for a reason – far too often people panic and cancel trips when a storm isn’t even coming close to us.




Locals:  Just be ready.  The only last minute things any of us along a tropical coast line should be doing IF a storm comes our way is fuel up, last minute perishables and a few last minute house preps because – why be stressed or unprepared?  Exaaaaactly.

Have a fantabulous weekend!

Remember, this blog is more for entertainment purposes.  Please refer to your local weather officials for information and if you do not have local weather officials, then the NHC because they have a much bigger clue than I do. 

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