By: Live Cabo Radio (Just Jenn)
A few years ago, I started a spreadsheet for the East Pacific Ocean on the total named storms, how many hurricanes, if Baja California Sur was affected by any of them, and how many storms, regardless of strength, made landfall in our state.
Just going back from 2013 to 2024, this is what I came up with. These are averages using the old-fashioned method of rounding up or down (so 17.66 is 18, 6.33 is 6).
| Averages | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes | B.C.S. Effected | B.C.S. Landfall |
| Neutral | 18 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| El Nino | 17 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| La Nina | 16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
There was a lot of hype that this year we were under La Nina advisory, and many were expecting La Nina conditions; however, just a few days ago, it was announced that the Pacific Ocean would instead see neutral sea surface temperatures.
I’ve always said in this blog that neutral Enso cycle years make me a bit nervous. That being said, some neutral years, like last year, our immediate region only saw one storm! Regardless of strength from Tropical Storm to stronger systems, B.C.S. landfalls: 2024 -1, 2019 – 1, 2018 – 2, 2017- 1 for ENSO cycle neutral years. Some years more, we see a few more. It’s like I’ve always said, just be as vigilant and prepared as you can … calmly. This isn’t a freak-out thing.
So, how does this affect you? You may or may not see more weather this year. 🤷♀️ I know! Super insightful! 🤪 Nobody likes tropical weather in the region, but unfortunately, we usually do not get our much-needed rain without the storms so …
Let’s look at the first forecast that has been issued.
Semar has, as usual, issued the first forecast for our region, and while even those who are Spanish language impaired can guess what the graphic above says, I’ll break it down. Semar is going with 🤔 … 19 total storms for 2025: 1 Tropical Depression, 8 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes of category 1-2 in strength, and 4 Major Hurricanes of category 3 or higher. How many may or may not impact land anywhere in Mexico, we will all find out at the end of the season.
2025 Storm Names:
| Alvin (unused) Barbara (unused) Cosme (unused) Dalila (unused)Erick (unused) Flossie (unused) Gil (unused) Henriette (unused) Ivo (unused) | Juliette (unused) Kiko (unused) Lorena (unused) Mario (unused) Narda (unused) Octave (unused) Priscilla (unused) | Raymond (unused) Sonia (unused) Tico (unused) Velma (unused) Wallis (unused) Xina (unused) York (unused) Zelda (unused) |
I do know that Live Cabo Radio’s personal weather station only recorded a tad over 5 inches of rain for all of 2024. Los Cabos received much more than I recorded, but the winds affect whether or not rainfall ends up in the collection cup.
Hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.
If time permits, one day I hope to go into more detail on how the ENSO cycle really works, as I do believe I’ve done in the past, and elaborate on the past averages for how it affects our nearest ocean and not just Los Cabos but Baja California Sur. To be fair to me, even the professionals stopped keeping track a few decades ago.
Just Jenn,
This blog is about a 9-minute read, but only if you keep scrolling.
Climate change. Many people blame “climate change” instead of looking at the data of recorded SST’s going back to 1950. When it comes to the ENSO cycles, yes, the Sea Surface Temperatures naturally change from what is called neutral which is more like “normal”, to either below the “norm” which is considered La Nina (the SST’s are colder), to above the “norm” which is called El Nino (the SST’s are warmer)… for a color version dating back to 1950 please visit the link or the black and white copy/paste below to see “periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.” Yes, it does have an effect on the rest of the world.
LINK: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 1950 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| 1951 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1952 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 1953 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1954 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 1955 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| 1956 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 1957 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 1958 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1959 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 1960 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 1961 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 1962 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| 1963 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1964 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| 1965 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 1966 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| 1967 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| 1968 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 1969 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 1970 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| 1971 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| 1972 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1973 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.0 |
| 1974 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| 1975 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 |
| 1976 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 1977 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1978 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1979 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 1980 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1981 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 1982 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1983 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| 1984 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| 1985 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| 1986 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 1987 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 1988 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 |
| 1989 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 1990 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1991 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 1992 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1993 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 1994 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 1995 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1996 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1997 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1998 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 |
| 1999 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.7 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 2000 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 2001 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2002 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 2003 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2004 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 2005 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| 2006 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.6 |
| 2008 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| 2009 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 2010 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
| 2011 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 |
| 2012 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| 2014 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 2015 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 2016 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| 2017 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -1.0 |
| 2018 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 2019 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ |
| 2020 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| 2021 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | -0.6 | -0.4 |