September 25, 2026
Polo spent the last day getting meaner.
Thursday afternoon, he was a Category 4 at 150 mph, wrapping up an eyewall replacement cycle. Hurricane Hunters flew him, the inner eyewall died, the outer eyewall tightened, and the pressure started falling.
By last night, he was still walking west, away from mainland Mexico.
Then overnight, the satellite presentation went from impressive to unhinged.
The eye warmed. The convection got colder and tighter. And the National Hurricane Center kept raising the number.
This morning’s 8 AM MST advisory is the one that matters:
Category 5.
180 mph.
900 mb.
Polo was near 17.1°N, 108.5°W, moving west at 12 mph — about 410 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Still a compact bully, too. Hurricane-force winds extend only about 40 miles from the center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 115 miles.
He doesn’t have to be huge to shove a lot of ocean at us.
Where NHC thinks he’s going
West today.
Northwest and then north Saturday and Sunday.
Northeast Monday, toward Baja California Sur early next week — still as a strong hurricane.
No watches or warnings are posted for Baja California Sur yet. NHC says watches could become necessary for part of the peninsula as early as Saturday.
The official forecast track still does not put Polo’s center on Cabo.
Instead, the current track takes him north along the Pacific side of mid-to-northern Baja, then across the peninsula and into mainland Mexico as he weakens.
We are on the south end of that story. We are not off the story.
And that distinction matters.
Cone reminder — especially if you just found this page
The white cone is not the size of the storm.
It represents the probable path of the center. That center can end up anywhere within the cone, and hazardous conditions can occur well outside it.
The skinny black line is a forecast, not a reservation.
Rain
NHC’s planning numbers for Baja California Sur are 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches, late Sunday into Monday, along with flood and mudslide potential in steep terrain.
But read the rainfall map before you invent a monsoon over Médano. 😂
The highest rainfall amounts on this particular graphic are concentrated farther north, around the Magdalena/Constitución area. The southern end of the peninsula is on the lighter green edge, generally around 1 to 4 inches, and portions of the forecast are marked as lower confidence.
So:
Rain for Los Cabos? Yes.
Ten inches falling on the Arch? That’s not what this map is saying.
What Cabo is already dealing with
The ocean got here first.
NHC says Polo’s swell is continuing to affect southwestern Mexico and spread north along Baja California Sur through the weekend, bringing the potential for dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal flooding.
And ZOFEMAT has already translated those conditions into beach flags.
Friday in Cabo San Lucas: BLACK FLAGS — BEACH CLOSED.
The San José del Cabo corridor is also showing black flags.
In the East Cape/Zona Norte, several beaches are under red flags — no swimming.
Meanwhile, the Pacific is already making itself known onshore.
This morning, tires and debris were visible along the beach in Cabo San Lucas following the recent weather.
Polo is still hundreds of miles away.
The ocean does not particularly care.
What those wave numbers mean
A few quick translations because weather-model wave maps can be confusing:
Wave height: the larger waves in the set — not the little foam washing onto your ankles.
Swell: energy generated by Polo that travels outward from the storm.
Period: the time between waves. A 10–13 second period means substantially more energy and push than short-period wind chop.
Wave power: essentially how much energy the ocean is delivering to the coastline.
The latest guidance has both major models building the swell Friday and Saturday, with the largest values around Sunday, roughly around 9 feet in the Cabo-area guidance, with the GFS somewhat higher.
And Polo does not need to park off Land’s End to do that.
Meanwhile, in the rest of the Pacific…
Odalys is a Category 4 nearly 1,000 miles west of the tip of Baja California Sur, forecast to weaken and remain a high-seas problem.
There’s also a new disturbance south of Tehuantepec with a high chance of developing into a tropical depression later this weekend.
Because apparently one Category 5 wasn’t enough plot development.
For now, though, Polo is still the lead.
Bottom line for Cabo this morning
A Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds is a few hundred miles south of us, moving west and expected to turn north toward mid-to-northern Baja California early next week.
No hurricane watch or warning for Los Cabos yet.
Beaches are already closed in Cabo San Lucas and parts of the San José corridor.
Small boats are still in the penalty box.
And the Pacific is doing the talking first.
Polo has officially entered the “we are watching this very closely” chapter.
