Well.

Polo finally moved.

After spending an almost ridiculous amount of time practically sitting in place, Hurricane Polo is now moving northwest at about 5 mph. And while that is certainly preferable to having a Category 5 hurricane parked over the same patch of ocean indefinitely, it also means the forecast picture is beginning to change.

And naturally, this is about the point where the “OMG SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION?” messages begin.

So let’s take a breath and look at what we actually know — and what we don’t.

🌀 First: Where is Polo going?

As of the National Hurricane Center’s 9 AM CST advisory Wednesday, September 23, Polo was about 160 miles south of Zihuatanejo and 300 miles southeast of Manzanillo.

Maximum sustained winds were 150 mph, making Polo a Category 4 hurricane.

The good news for Baja is that the official forecast keeps the core of Polo offshore as it moves generally northwestward and then west-northwestward.

The less-comforting part?

Polo is still a very powerful hurricane, and the forecast becomes considerably more uncertain farther out in time.

The latest NHC forecast brings Polo northward to around 23.2°N, 113.1°W by 120 hours — putting the forecast center well offshore and west of mainland Mexico, but still south of the southern Baja Peninsula.

And that is where things get interesting.

The NHC is explicitly noting that there is significant uncertainty later in the forecast period, with different guidance handling Polo’s eventual turn differently.

So, no, we’re not going to pretend we know exactly where Polo will be five days from now.

Because we don’t.

And that’s exactly why we’re watching it.

🌧️ What about Cabo?

This is where the computer models become particularly interesting.

I pulled four different model forecasts for the Cabo San Lucas area:

ECMWF
Meteoblue AI
GFS
ICON

And they don’t agree.

Which is actually a very important piece of information.

Rainfall

The models are generally showing the possibility of rain beginning to creep into the forecast late this weekend, with Sunday into Monday currently looking like the period to watch most closely.

But the amount varies dramatically depending on the model.

The drier solutions are showing only a few tenths of an inch.

The wetter GFS solution is considerably more aggressive, with the potential for around an inch or more accumulating over the period shown.

That is a pretty substantial spread.

And it means we are not looking at a reliable “Cabo is going to get X inches of rain” forecast yet.

We’re looking at a range of possibilities.

That’s an important distinction.

💨 What about wind?

This is where the models are considerably less alarming.

The four model forecasts are generally showing breezy conditions rather than anything remotely resembling hurricane-force winds in Cabo itself, with some of the models pushing into the 20–25+ mph range at times.

The strongest winds in these particular point forecasts occur around Sunday.

That’s something you might notice.

It is not the same thing as having Polo come ashore in Los Cabos.

🌊 And then there’s the ocean…

Because Polo is a very large and powerful hurricane, the ocean doesn’t have to wait for the center of the storm to arrive before it starts getting interesting.

This wave-height forecast valid Saturday shows a substantial area of elevated seas surrounding Polo, with the highest waves concentrated much closer to the hurricane.

Around the southern Baja region, the modeled wave heights are considerably lower than those immediately surrounding Polo — but the ocean is still not going to be behaving like your average September weekend.

And this is where I want to make one thing very clear:

A wave-height model is not a beach-by-beach surf forecast.

The actual conditions at a particular beach will depend on swell direction, local bathymetry, reefs, currents, wind and exposure.

So don’t look at a map showing a few meters of significant wave height and assume that’s the height of every wave breaking on every beach.

It isn’t.

What it does tell us is that the ocean deserves attention this weekend, particularly for anyone boating, fishing, diving, surfing or otherwise planning to spend significant time offshore.

🧭 So… should you cancel your Cabo vacation?

Not based on this forecast alone.

And I’m deliberately saying that without promising that everything will be fine.

There is a difference between:

“Polo is going to hit Cabo.”

and

“Polo may influence conditions around Baja.”

Those are very, very different statements.

Right now, the official forecast keeps Polo’s core offshore.

The current model guidance for Cabo itself is showing a range of rainfall possibilities, generally modest-to-breezy winds, and increasing ocean/swell concerns.

That’s something to monitor.

It is not, at this moment, a reason for me to tell everyone to start canceling reservations.

If you’re already in Cabo, this is a good time to pay attention to the forecast.

If you’re flying into Cabo this weekend, I’d keep watching the updates rather than making a decision based on a five-day model snapshot.

And if you’re planning a boat day?

Well…

I would be paying considerably more attention to the marine forecast than I would be to whether my hotel reservation is refundable. 😉 Which what I am supposed to say … while also wanting to say, “stay home”. You have travel insurance and can always reschedule if need be! ❤️ I am not giving advice either way.

One important update for anyone currently in Cabo San Lucas: the port is scheduled to close at midnight tonight, Thursday, until further notice. This means departures for small vessels are not authorized, so water-based activities such as fishing, snorkeling, diving, whale-watching and other excursions that depend on port access may be suspended while the closure is in effect.

That does not mean Cabo itself is shutting down. The port closure is a marine safety measure, and conditions can change as Polo moves away and officials reassess.

So, if you’re STILL arriving in Cabo this weekend, don’t panic and cancel the margaritas just yet. 🍹 The current forecasts are worth watching, particularly for rain, wind, surf and marine conditions, but there is still considerable uncertainty several days out.

🌀 And because this is the Hurricane Season Novela…

Polo isn’t the only character in today’s episode.

Hurricane Odalys is now a hurricane, currently well west-southwest of Baja and moving east-northeastward.

Odalys is expected to strengthen a bit more before conditions become less favorable later in the week.

And the National Hurricane Center specifically notes that potential interaction between Odalys and Polo could complicate Polo’s track later in the forecast period.

Because apparently one hurricane wasn’t enough plot development.

And there’s another disturbance waiting in the wings south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

It has essentially no chance of developing during the next 48 hours, but the NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of formation within seven days.

We’ll save that character for another episode.

For now:

Polo is moving.

That’s good.

But it’s still a powerful hurricane, the forecast gets increasingly uncertain beyond the next few days, and the Cabo area could see some rain, wind and elevated seas depending on how the system evolves.

So keep watching.

Don’t panic. Don’t ignore it.