Polo is still moving.

After spending what seemed like an eternity barely going anywhere, Hurricane Polo is now moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. He is still a Category 4 major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph as of the National Hurricane Center’s 9 AM CST Advisory 16 on Thursday, September 24.

The center was near 16.8°N, 104.4°W — about 195 miles west-southwest of Zihuatanejo and 150 miles south of Manzanillo.

Today’s forecast picture is considerably more interesting than yesterday’s, because there is now a clearer idea of where Polo is currently expected to go.

🌀 Where Is Polo Going?

The current National Hurricane Center forecast takes Polo generally westward later today and Friday, then west-northwest and eventually northward, with the storm approaching Baja California Sur from the south early next week.

The current official forecast takes Polo across Baja California Sur.

The important detail attached to that is:

Well north of Los Cabos.

Advisory 16 takes the center to about 24.4°N, 113.3°W by midday Monday, still a hurricane, west of mid-Baja — roughly Magdalena Bay latitude, not the tip of the peninsula.

Cabo San Lucas sits near 22.9°N.

The forecast is not currently showing Polo making a direct approach to Cabo.

That distinction matters.

The forecast track five days out is not a guarantee. It is the current forecast based on the information and guidance available right now. The farther out the forecast goes, the more uncertainty there is.

The northward turn is the piece worth watching closely.

Five-day forecasts are forecasts, not appointments.

The official cone also carries its usual warning: the cone represents the probable path of the center of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of it.

🧭 Where NHC Currently Thinks Polo Will Go

The current NHC forecast track has Polo approaching the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane, then crossing well north of Los Cabos.

That is a different scenario from a hurricane making landfall near Cabo San Lucas.

Los Cabos is not under a hurricane watch or warning.

The watches and warnings in this advisory are confined to southwestern mainland Mexico, from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, with a Tropical Storm Watch west of Manzanillo to Playa Pérula.

NHC says interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the system.

The track can still change.

Even when the center of a hurricane stays far away, the storm can still affect areas well outside the forecast track.

🌧️ What This Means for Los Cabos

The weather picture for Los Cabos is that weather is possible.

The exact amount is not settled.

Four model forecasts for the Cabo San Lucas area give four slightly different versions of the weekend:

• ECMWF
• Meteoblue AI
• GFS
• ICON

They do not agree on rainfall.

Some solutions are relatively modest, showing only scattered showers and a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. The GFS is considerably wetter, with substantially more rain possible Sunday into Monday. ICON is also showing a wetter Sunday than some of the other guidance.

The range is wide enough that a specific rainfall total for Cabo is not useful yet.

Rain is possible.

The forecast has become wetter.

Sunday into Monday is the period that deserves particular attention.

The exact amount remains a moving target.

💨 Wind

The models are not nearly as dramatic for Cabo as the hurricane itself.

Current point forecasts generally show breezy to occasionally gusty conditions rather than anything resembling the winds near Polo’s core.

Depending on the model and time period, sustained winds around Cabo can get into the teens and occasionally around 20 mph.

That is a very different conversation from 155-mph hurricane winds.

The current NHC forecast does not put hurricane-force winds over Los Cabos.

Polo is intense, but not especially large. Hurricane-force winds in Advisory 16 extend only about 30 to 35 nautical miles from the center; tropical-storm-force winds extend about 90 to 110 nautical miles.

The bigger footprint is the swell field, not the wind field.

🌊 The Ocean

Polo does not have to come near Cabo San Lucas for the Pacific to become a problem.

A compact but powerful hurricane can still generate a substantial area of swell.

The wave forecast for Sunday is particularly notable. The largest waves remain concentrated much closer to the hurricane itself, well west of Baja, but significant swell extends toward the peninsula.

The ocean around Baja California Sur can become dangerous well before the center of Polo gets anywhere near it.

A wave-height model is not a beach-by-beach surf forecast.

Conditions at any particular beach depend on swell direction, local bathymetry, reefs, currents, wind, exposure, and the orientation of the coastline.

A map showing several meters of significant wave height does not mean every wave breaking on every beach will be that height.

What it does indicate is that the marine environment deserves attention this weekend.

🚢 Cabo San Lucas Port

The Port of Cabo San Lucas remains closed to small-vessel departures until further notice.

Departures for small craft are not authorized while the restriction is in effect.

That means fishing, snorkeling, diving, sightseeing by boat and other small-craft excursions may be suspended while the closure remains in effect.

The closure is a marine safety measure. Officials will reassess conditions as Polo moves and the marine environment changes.

📋 What the Current Forecast Actually Says

Based on NHC Advisory 16:

• Polo is a Category 4 hurricane moving west-northwest off southwestern Mexico.
• The official five-day track takes the center toward a crossing of Baja California Sur well north of Los Cabos.
• Los Cabos is currently not under a hurricane watch or warning.
• Rain is possible in Los Cabos, but the models disagree considerably on how much.
• Winds around Cabo are currently forecast to be breezy rather than hurricane-force.
• The Pacific is expected to become increasingly rough, with potentially dangerous swell and surf.
• The Cabo San Lucas port remains closed to small vessels until further notice.

The clearest near-term concern is not the exact rainfall or wind at Cabo.

It is the ocean, which may become hazardous before the atmosphere around Cabo necessarily does.

🌀 The Rest of the Pacific Cast

Polo is not the only system in the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Odalys is well to the west, and another disturbance farther south still has a chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Forecasters are watching whether those systems have any influence on one another.

That is monitoring, not a finished subplot.

For today, the focus stays on Polo.

He has finally decided to go somewhere.

The next question is exactly where that somewhere ends up.