We took the weekend off. Apparently, the Eastern Pacific did not.
Rachel has finally left the neighborhood.
She is now about 800 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, still a hurricane, and finally getting ready to make the turn that will send her toward northern Baja California and Southern California.
And while Rachel was busy refusing to leave for several days, another storm quietly showed up south of Mexico.
His name is Simon.
So yes, there is a new chapter.
And Rachel? She was rude on the way out.
Rachel Finally Left the Hallway
As of the 2 PM PDT Wednesday, October 7 advisory, Hurricane Rachel is still holding onto hurricane strength.
Hurricane Rachel — Advisory 43
- Category 1 hurricane
- Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
- Minimum pressure: 979 mb
- Moving west-northwest at 7 mph
- Center near 21.2°N, 122.3°W
- About 800 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
- No coastal watches or warnings are in effect
Hurricane-force winds extend about 35 miles from Rachel’s center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 125 miles.
So, yes.
She’s finally gone.
Mostly.
Because Rachel apparently believes that leaving the neighborhood requires a dramatic exit.
The turn is coming
Rachel is currently being steered west-northwest by high pressure over the western United States.
That setup is about to change.
A large trough moving in from the northwest is expected to slow Rachel down, turn her sharply toward the northeast near the end of the week, and then accelerate her toward northern Baja California and Southern California.
The current forecast has Rachel weakening as she moves over cooler water and into an increasingly hostile environment.
But — because Rachel has spent the last several days demonstrating that she apparently does not read the instructions — the Hurricane Center is keeping the intensity forecast toward the stronger end of the guidance.
By the 96-hour point, Rachel is forecast to be post-tropical and inland, but the forecast still carries 45-mph winds.
Post-tropical does not necessarily mean harmless.
The organization and tropical characteristics may be gone while strong winds, rain and dangerous surf remain.
Rachel Is Still Rachel
The satellite picture tells the story.
The inner core has not recovered its deep convection.
There is still convection on the eastern side, but the northwest side of the eyewall remains largely bare because of persistent wind shear and dry air.
So the beautiful, compact hurricane we were watching earlier in the week?
She’s looking considerably more tired.
But she’s still hanging on.
Small core. Stubborn storm. Very long goodbye.
And her swells are now becoming more important farther north.
The Hurricane Center expects swells partly generated by Rachel to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend, bringing the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
For Los Cabos, though, Rachel’s direct chapter is winding down.
And that brings us to the part where she was rude.
Rachel Was Rude on the Way Out
One weather station near Médano Beach has recorded 5.01 inches of rain since October 1.
That’s at one location — not all of Los Cabos — but it’s a heck of a number.
And this is especially interesting because that same location had already picked up roughly 10 inches during September.
Which puts that one very wet spot at approximately 15 inches of rain since September 1.
From a storm that spent most of its time offshore.
Rachel. Rude. 💅
Some of that rainfall came from Rachel’s outer bands, while the broader moisture pattern was also pulling moisture northward from mainland Mexico.
And this is exactly why rainfall totals around Los Cabos can be so deceptive.
One neighborhood can get hammered while another gets a fraction of it.
So no, Los Cabos did not collectively get 15 inches of rain.
But one location near Médano Beach?
Yeah.
Rachel left a pretty substantial tip.
And the Beach Flags Are Finally Changing
The ZOFEMAT boards for Wednesday, October 7 show a very different picture from Friday.
Cabo San Lucas
Cabo is now a mixed bag.
🔴 Red — No swimming
- Las Tinajas
- Curva del Soldado
- Migriño
- Villa del Palmar
- Villa del Arco
- Villa La Estancia
- Riu Palace
- Riu Santa Fe
- Riu Baja California
🟡 Yellow — Swim with caution
- El Corsario
- Médano Breathless
- Hacienda
- Casa Dorada
- Me Cabo
- Pueblo Bonito Los Cabos
- Pueblo Bonito Rose
- Club Cascadas de Baja
⚫ Black — Beach closed
- Las Viudas
- Santa María
- El Chileno
- El Tule
San José del Cabo
Still closed:
⚫ Palmilla
⚫ Acapulquito
⚫ Costa Azul
⚫ Las Palmas
⚫ La Playa
Zona Norte
Still red:
🔴 La Ribera
🔴 Surgidero
🔴 El Datil/Capilla
🔴 Spa Buena Vista
🔴 La Gaviota
So the beach board is improving in some places, but Rachel’s ocean doesn’t disappear just because Rachel herself has moved 800 miles away.
Check the flags. Listen to the lifeguards. And if the beach is closed, there’s a remarkably easy solution:
Don’t go in.
Meanwhile, South of Mexico…
Remember that little pink blob we were watching?
Yeah.
He got a name.
Meet Tropical Storm Simon
Simon was upgraded from a depression to a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Simon — Advisory 2
- 40 mph
- 1004 mb
- Moving west-northwest at 8 mph
- Center near 15.5°N, 101.6°W
- About 175 miles southeast of Lázaro Cárdenas
- About 300 miles southeast of Manzanillo
- No watches or warnings are currently in effect
The Hurricane Center says watches will likely be needed for portions of the southwestern Mexico coast tonight.
And Simon is a very different animal from Rachel.
Simon Is Not Wasting Any Time
Simon is sitting in an environment with:
- Low vertical wind shear
- Plenty of low- to mid-level moisture
- Very warm water
- High oceanic heat content
- Increasingly organized convection and outflow
In other words:
Simon has the ingredients.
The forecast calls for continued strengthening, with hurricane strength expected by Thursday night and the potential to become a major hurricane later this week.
The current forecast peaks Simon around:
115 mph — Category 3 — Friday/Saturday timeframe.
The official forecast then brings him northward toward the southwestern/west-central coast of mainland Mexico Saturday.
And this is where the story gets serious.
Simon’s Mainland Mexico Story
The Hurricane Center is warning of 8 to 12 inches of rain across portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 15 to 25 inches possible in parts of Colima and Michoacán through Sunday.
That means potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain.
Simon is also expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents along portions of the southwestern and west-central Mexican coast.
So while Rachel is now headed toward a completely different part of the map, Simon is becoming the storm that deserves the immediate attention along mainland Mexico.
Two Storms. Two Very Different Stories.
Rachel spent days offshore of Baja, fought through shear and dry air, tried on Category 3, put it back, crawled west, and finally decided to turn around.
Simon showed up, organized himself, got a name and immediately started shopping for hurricane-strength winds.
😂
Rachel: “I’ll leave eventually.”
Simon: “Hold my beer.”
Except nobody is actually holding beer, because we’re talking about hurricanes and this is where the jokes stop.
Simon has the potential for significant impacts along mainland Mexico, while Rachel’s biggest concerns are shifting toward northern Baja, Southern California and the interior Southwest.
And Los Cabos?
For us, the Rachel chapter is mostly the aftermath.
The rain.
The runoff.
The flooded streets and arroyos.
The surf.
The flags.
And one extremely soggy weather station near Médano Beach that apparently had a much more eventful October than the rest of us.
Rachel is finally moving on.
But she was rude.
She left us with approximately 5 inches of rain at one location in October alone, after an already very wet September.
And now the ocean gets to finish the goodbye.
What’s happening where you are?
If you’re in Los Cabos, Todos Santos, Los Cerritos, La Paz, the East Cape, northern Baja, Southern California, Arizona or mainland Mexico, tell us what you’re seeing.
Rain totals.
Wind.
Flooding.
Surf.
Clouds.
Or absolutely nothing.
Weather around Baja can change dramatically from one place to the next, and those local observations are part of the story.
Rachel may finally be leaving.
You tell us what she left behind. ❤️
Official information
For the latest watches, warnings, forecasts and safety information, follow the National Hurricane Center and your local weather and civil protection authorities.
National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
