Vance has been struggling against strong wind shear, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. But there’s a lesson in this week’s weather that deserves a little attention: a weakening tropical system can still deliver a very real downpour.
🌀 WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH VANCE?
As of the 8 AM MST advisory Thursday, October 29, Tropical Storm Vance was located about 215 miles west-northwest of Cabo Corrientes and 115 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. It was moving north at approximately 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
The NHC expects Vance to weaken and transition into a post-tropical remnant low later today. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
The main concern is no longer the possibility of Vance behaving like a strengthening hurricane. It’s the rain, flooding and mudslides across parts of western Mexico, along with dangerous surf and rip currents affecting portions of the coast.
🌧️ BUT WHAT ABOUT THAT DOWNPOUR IN CABO?
On Tuesday evening, rain arrived hard and fast while people were driving home or heading out to dinner. Some people were caught completely off guard. Others thought rain wasn’t expected until Wednesday. And at least one person pointed out that the rain wasn’t even showing up on the radar. So many reported power outages, too.
Yes, that can happen. It is horrifying and tragic.
A storm’s center track does not show every location that might receive rain. Bands of showers and thunderstorms can develop or move into an area away from the center, and conditions can change quickly. Radar is a valuable tool, but it is not a guarantee that a location will stay dry simply because precipitation isn’t showing up over it at a particular moment.
One personal weather station near Médano Beach recorded 0.32 inches of rain during October 26–November 1, according to its current weekly summary. The same station’s October monthly summary shows 7.21 inches for October 1–31.
That’s one station, not an official rainfall total for all of Los Cabos. Rainfall can vary dramatically across the area, even over relatively short distances.
🌊 TODAY’S BEACH CONDITIONS
ZOFEMAT’s beach reports for Thursday, October 29, show black flags at the listed Cabo San Lucas beaches as a preventive measure because of possible changes in weather and sea conditions.
The reports also show red flags at the listed beaches in San José del Cabo and the northern zone.
Remember that beach conditions are location-specific, and the flags are there for a reason. Follow the instructions of the lifeguards and watch for updated conditions.
📍 THE TAKEAWAY
Vance may be weakening, but that doesn’t mean every associated hazard vanishes at the same time. And a quiet-looking radar image or a forecast that doesn’t call for widespread rain does not guarantee that every neighborhood will stay dry.
Los Cabos weather can vary from one place to another, and tropical systems can affect the region in ways that aren’t captured by simply looking at where the center is headed.
I’ll continue sharing the official forecasts, satellite imagery, local observations and useful weather resources as the situation evolves.
🌀 Stay curious, keep an eye on the updates, and remember: the center of the storm isn’t the whole story.
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