Invest 91e & Computer Models – what are those things again?

For those new to this blog, we break things down so those addicted to sites like eebmike (a site I am grateful for and use frequently for an at a glance peak) get a clearer understanding of what they are looking at and looking for.

Item #1 mentioned in this mornings weather update has already dissipated whereas Item #2, has become interesting enough that the NHC (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac) has decided to monitor it.

“For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 975 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain" ~ Gotta give credit to the professionals! 

Computer Models. What are those things again? Well first, what is an “Invest” …

“An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development.”  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_%28meteorology%29

So we’ve got an area of disturbance. Now what?  Well,  computer hurricane models that use mathematical equations try and figure out what the weather or in this case a storm, will do next.  Each computer model has its strengths and its weaknesses and they rarely agree 100%.  It helps to see them all in one screen shot.  Using Invest 91e as an example, notice where the red “L” is? That is the current location of this system.  Each different colored line is a path with time markers each of the 6 most widely used computer models think this system will go and each dot represents a twelve (12) hour period).  These computer models will change their “minds” several times a day every day so it really is pointless to check them every 5 minutes (besides the fact that they aren’t updated more than a few times per day and double that is threat to land is possible).

Please allow me to introduce you to Invest 91e.  It’s totally moving in the opposite direction of land which is exactly what we want as much as we could use some rain.

Will Invest 91e amount to anything?  Hopefully just this tutorial on computer models – image from https://www.wunderground.com/.

~Jenn

We’ve got a FB group for those interested in talking about the latest Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the Los Cabos area. Information directly from those who live in the area. We have a lot of micro-climates throughout Los Cabos and encourage people to give weather updates from all around the area. LOVE pictures of sunny skies naturally, but do appreciate all forms of participation – NO SELF PROMOTING (advertising).

https://www.facebook.com/groups/727074667339978/