Edited: Blas now a cat 4. Changed out the images for Blas only from the National Hurricane Center and wunderground as its not like we are keeping score of how it changes it only matters that it changes, right? Still going out to sea. I am not changing out the info posted from the National Hurricane Center as the links provided “should” provide current info. Wow … from 2 to a 4 in less than a day!
Agatha has dissipated as expected. We had a not so surprise bit of rain today from some clouds sent to us from mainland – thank you! We needed some rain. 😊🌦🌂
We all know that by the time I post this, there will be an update so I reserve the right to edit with notations … so maybe check back in with this post just in case (after 3pm Cabo – 2pm PST), besides the usual typo fixes 😇 (Title updated as were a few of the images as Blas was still a cat 2 when I first posted this) edited just before 9pm
First, the 10-Day which I sadly have no faith in considering how off its been lately.
Now let’s talk about Hurricane Blas … or rather let me must show you and let the National Hurricane Center and images from Wunderground (plus a few of my own) do the talking before I go out on a limb with the Invest.
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 ...BLAS BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 120.9W ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 120.9 West. Blas is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Blas is expected to weaken beginning Wednesday night or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Now on to the newest area of interest.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Blas, located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The circulation of the low has become better defined today, and continued development is expected. This system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Forecaster Cangialosi
5-day from the NHC
The National Hurricane Center is positive in the next 5 days that the Invest will become a tropical cyclone. Here’s the thing, and this is the limb. As you all know if you’ve followed me on FB, I’m not a fan of windyty’s long term forecasts. But, Hawaii. Yeah … #Hawaii monitor this system just to be on the safe side, not to fear monger.
Possible location which as we all know is not cool to predict for around the 15th … see below (I’m anti-long term predicting)
Below are just a few images showing more forecast tracks etc for Blas and Invest 96e (not swapping these for current images. The storms are not effecting land so I’ll leave them be and go to bed)
When/if a system developes this season that may effect land, we will review a few things for those new to my weather reporting.
Armchair Weather Forecaster that knows nothing ~ Jenn
If you like the blog, please subscribe/follow! It’s easy … just remember to check your junk/spam folder to verify subscription. Gracias!