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Afternoon edit/update: According to the NHC (National Hurricane Center), Darby is putting up a fight about this whole demotion to Tropical Storm non-sense and is remaining a CAT 1 … for now. I suddenly have that song, you know the one Tom Petty sings (No I’ll stand my ground Won’t be turned around, And I’ll keep this world from draggin’ me down, Gonna stand my ground)! Max sustained winds are currently 75mph while still heading west at 12mph. Meanwhile, Estelle is like the little engine that could … she is trying really hard to grow big and strong and become a hurricane. She’s almost there with just 5mph more to go for sustained winds. Okie dokie, that’s all I’ve got for the afternoon update ~Jenn 4pm
So glad I stopped at the Cabo Cantina Coffee for a latte with caramel sauce. Totally needed it.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb-animated.gif
So let’s start with Estelle since she is closest and the one responsible for all of this humidity.
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000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 114.9W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 114.9 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is likely during the next day or so, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. An automated weather observing site on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (133 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). A pressure of 995.3 was recently reported on Clarion Island. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Darby … has little hurricane system. No wonder he puffed up and briefly became a 3 over the weekend but now moving over cooler waters, he has calmed down some and now a Cat 1 and most likely to become a tropical storm at some point today.
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000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...DARBY WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 131.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 131.1 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby should become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
10-Day forecast time …
By the time that cute kitty gets its first like of ice cream, it will be a puddle and not necessarily from the heat but that danger humidity. Why did I curl my hair today? #girlproblems We may see unexpected rain in the surrounding area of Los Cabos regardless of what the weather man says. There are little systems of rain clouds crossing over the Sea of Cortez from mainland towards us. Later this week, it is also possible a stray band or two will detach from Estelle and somehow end up here. Somehow meaning winds … I need to work on my latte to wake up.
Apparently, there will be brutal heat waves across the USA. Stay hydrated regardless of where you are.
~Jenn
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