Raise your hand if you are still freaked out from Odile? 🙋 Everyone take a deep breathe. A deep cleansing pranayama breath. If you don’t know what that is, Claudio Solano is an excellent teacher. You may know him as the push up guy or Claudio Cabo on FB. If breathing doesn’t work, pour a glass of wine.
Everyone seems to be freaking out over the possibility of a storm that technically, at this moment, does not exist as anything more than a cluster of clouds that is producing rain. Right? Then add to it the possibility that Earle will cross over even as a remnant low (just rain clouds) and make this system larger … I get it. I totally do.
After Odile, I had hurricane Windows installed. I also, finally ordered accordion shutters. (Topic for another day). Will I need them next week? I don’t think so … I don’t know. Maybe. Probably not. Can I just hide under a rock until my next birthday? No? Let’s review what we’ve already learned about monitoring storms.
First, the National Hurricane Center alerts us that they are kinda monitoring a bunch of clouds that are near an area of low air pressure.
The National Hurricane Center makes it easy for us to understand. There is currently a 40-60 percent chance that the orange X where the center of this “system” is, will become a tropical cyclone. But some people like to reeeeeeally look ahead.
Again, the NHC makes it really easy for us. Anywhere within the red shaded area in the next 5 days, a tropical depression or stronger might form. There is also a chance the system doesn’t like to color inside the lines.
What happens next, is that the NHC will “invest” real interest in that area, which so far, they haven’t done. This is when we start to more closely monitor computer simulated storm prediction models. Let’s use Earle as an example.
The above image shows a bunch of colored lines each representing the 6 most widely used and trusted models. Notice how they do not agree? Some prefer to look at ensemble models but there are just too many variables like the butterfly effect.
So the NHC takes the computer models and make a forecast track. I’ll use two examples. First, from the NHC and second from wunderground because it is more colorful. 😊
Both images above are 5-Day probable forcast tracks which means that anywhere inside the white area for NHC or inside the circles for wunderground is where the center of (in this case, Earle) will be. In five days. Notice how wunderground shows it as a depression? By tomorrow? Now that alone should make everyone feel better, right? Well, yes and no. It just means that Earle isn’t as windy as he was the other day.
See? A depression wind wise is not a big deal unless you live in a hut. Which some people do. All this hoopla is about the moisture that existed pre-Earle and because of Earle. Earle is dumping rain and causing havoc.
So by now, you are probably rolling your eyes 🙄 at me because you already know all of this. Right? My momma taught me that’s not nice but I don’t blame you. You just want to know if Cabo is going to either get a butt load of rain, or a hurricane. The thing is, no one knows. Not really. It’s just too damned early to say. Sure we can look at long term forecast models in GIF type formats like windyty but I’ve seen that site be more wrong the right. (Even the NHC got Odile wrong.) Seriously. Sometimes, it gets it right. But then, the weatherman is wrong all the time! So let’s look at what we know is almost always wrong 😊 They 10-Day forecast.
Two partial screen shot examples …
So far, not too scary, right? This is why, until Intel changes, I’m not freaking out other than the fact I do not like driving in the rain. I have no plans to golf or fish … or go parasailing or horseback riding. I’m not much of a drinker so enjoying a bar stool is out. I’ll probably do what I do every day. Go to work. The difference is, I will be sure to get my grocery shopping done before this weekend is over. Another thing, more often than not, when we get a call for rain it mostly just rains in the mountains behind us, and it only takes a little to flood the street in front of Squid Roe making it look worse than it is.
This is my truth as I know it right now. And yeah, I do have plans to have my palm trees pruned tomorrow just in case. Palm tree leaves can puncture tires if you drive over them. It’s only polite not to be the reason someone gets a flat. In the rain.
Am I worried? Of course I am. I’m suffering from post traumatic stress disorder! And that alone, is why I will not speculate what is happening or could happen regarding next weeks weather. It would just be irresponsible.
Maybe mañana, we will have more info but for now, it’s family time.
Oh, I chose wine. It’s Friday. Don’t judge my typos. 😃