Let’s talk a bit about Earle … 

I’ve been speculating yet hesitating to really write it out, but there is a chance that Earle’s remnants add to the fuel already near the area of low pressure. I hinted at it last night. 

This morning, Dr. Jeff confirmed the possibility in his blog. We ARE scheduled for rain early next week, it’s a matter of how much, and will we also have wind?  As it stands NOW, the most we will see for winds is up to 20mph. Depending on which weather site you visit will tell you a totally different amount of rainfall expected.   Mastershttps://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3374

 

Earle is on the furthest left of the GIF:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-animated.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/041754.shtml

000
WTNT35 KNHC 041754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
100 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

…EARL BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM NW OF FLORES GUATEMALA
ABOUT 140 MI…255 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located inland over northern Guatemala near latitude 17.3 North,
longitude 90.2 West.  Earl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Earl will continue to
move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves over high terrain, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions over a small area near the center
should continue to spread westward over northern Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central
part of the Mexican state of Chiapas.  These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Computer models totally disagree with where Earle’s remnants will end up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/rb-animated.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2016

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivette, located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of disturbed weather has formed near and to the south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  This disturbance is expected to move
west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Storm Earl, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form near the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend.  Conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves northwestward toward the
Baja California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Forecaster Berg

I think it’s best at this time, to let the images speak for themselves.  It’s too early to know for sure how much rain we might get. I just … I don’t want to say the wrong thing. As soon as I catch up on some sleep (do you have cats?  It’s like fur-ever having an infant sometimes) I’ll sneak some humor back into weather ~Jenn

EDIT: Hour after posted … at this time, long term forecasts by the pro’s computer models do not show the low pressure system mentioned below developing, much. Right now, the forecast models show the higher winds hugging the coastline of mainland.  Just wanted to put that out there. Too soon to tell. Will update as info comes in.

Possible wind scenario for next Wednesday below.