Let me just preface today’s blog post by reminding everyone that this blog is for educational and entertainment purposes. Throughout my history of “doing the weather”, it’s always been important for me, that everyone understands what they are really looking at when they visit the NHC or have storm tracking apps, because it’s not an exact science, they can only give best guestamates.
Because this blog gets new followers daily, I am often very repetitive because I do not expect people to go back through the history and read up on what an Invest is, what Computer Models are, what forecast models really mean etc.
So what exactly IS a depression? It’s a low air pressure system with wind speeds less than 39mph. It’s actually nothing to worry, fret or for you to be depressed about. 🙄 I’m so lame! 😃 Unless, it comes to Cabo and you’ve got outdoor activities booked like golfing. Seriously, who can make a par 4 in that kind of wind? Kidding aside … let’s look at it.
Looking at the GIF below compliments of NOAA, we can see where the forecasted rain is coming from, and where the depression is (that’s the pink blob)
The image below as most by now know, is showing you the six most widely used and trusted computer models by scientists. I don’t have a degree, and can see just how wrong this is. Look at it. Split decision. Very frustrating, indeed. How different is the data entered for them to be at such odds? Ugh. Right?
The next image is from THE trusted source of all things hurricanes, The National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
As you can see, in both the image above as well as the more colorful one below, they are giving themselves a veeeeery wide margin of error. This depression’s center can end up anywhere inside those circles.
I won’t even bother with rain probabilities because we all have weather apps and they are all wrong. It’s true! Okay I’ll bother a little. Supposedly we will see about in inch tomorrow.
Day job is calling and I’m kinda bent that half of what I wrote didn’t get “saved” during the text edit so I will hopefully remember all the juicy stuff when it’s time for the update when this baby turns into a tropical storm. haha ~Jenn