EDITED: Finally got the link to the CPHC working for info and graphics!!!
I shared the hurricane party blog yesterday thinking of everyone – everywhere. Communities coming together it was the potluck concept is about.
First, in our own backyard though not the most urgent (today) however, lets keep a close eye on this system. I’ve been watching this system for a few days and it keeps changing (normal) but until there is more solid data I’ll refrain from the what-if’s because it’s just too early.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
1. A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the far eastern
Pacific centered a few hundred miles south of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward
near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Forecaster Blake
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb-animated.gif
Above is the Pacific, below is the Atlantic That tropical depression in the gulf is huge!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif
Wow … I know, right?
So … #Hawaii. First up is #Madeline
Please visit CPHC for detailed info .. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Madeline
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Direct Link
WTPA35 PHFO 311800
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
800 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016
…MADELINE WEAKENS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO HAWAII…
…STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.7N 153.6W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Hawaii County
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
watch area. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 153.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Madeline is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to develop over portions of
Hawaii County later today and continue into early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop over Maui County
later today and tonight, especially over mountains and where winds
blow downslope from higher terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to increase across
Hawaiian waters today, possibly becoming damaging along east
facing shores of Hawaii County and eastern portions of the Island of
Maui today and tonight.
RAIN: Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5
to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across
Hawaii County, especially over windward portions. Total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to
4 inches, can be expected in the islands of Maui County. This
rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.
STORM SURGE: Depending on the track of Madeline, the combination of
storm surge and tides could cause normally dry areas near the coast
to become flooded. The water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if
peak surge were to coincide with high tide. The surge would be
accompanied by large damaging surf and can vary over short
distances.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Wroe
Below is the surface winds Hawaii is expecting later today
and below is the wave height in METERS
Now let’s look at #Lester
Please see the NHC for detailed information on this system: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/311437.shtml?
Just – wow …
Over on the other side of the pond … Tropical Depression Nine
Dang it … day job demanding attention and since the rest of the active Atlantic storms aren’t heading towards land – http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ I’ll play catch up on the weather later if time permits.
Let’s all keep Hawaii in our thoughts today.
~jenn