…PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…
Current Location: ABOUT 215 MI…350 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
Above are the highlights … link here (though I will also copy/paste at the end: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/052058.shtml?
Raise your hand if you’ve been sitting at the computer hitting the refresh button every few minutes? Raise your hand if you’ve been watching this all day? I’ve stepped away from it but it’s on an open tab in my office.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/rb-animated.gif
While I am sure by now 95% of you know how to interpret forecast tracks … it never hurts to have a refresher for those that haven’t had the displeasure of watching one. So here it goes.
The experts, take computer simulated programs and input data to get an idea of where a storm might end up. Sometimes, the computer models do not agree and sometimes, they do. It can be really challenging to predict where a storm is going.
From the computer models, they come up with the forecast track and give themselves a margin of error – about 50 miles in either direction. So anywhere inside the white the center of the storm might go.
There are so many variables that can alter a storms strength it can make your head spin faster than the eye walls mph … but this is what the latest strength track looks like. I used this one most because I like color coded things.
One thing people really need to keep in mind is that it doesn’t matter if a storm’s eye is projected to pass over you directly or not, we still have to deal with the outer winds … you know? I am pre-typing most of this while waiting for the next advisory, but as an example, the 12pm put out by the NHC had Newton 235 miles from Cabo, with max sustained winds (at the center/eye area) of 65 mph … with tropical force winds extending 150 miles from the eye! So even if it doesn’t “look” like the eye is coming toward you, if you are within 150 miles in either direction, you will get wind and rain. How much is unknown because – microclimates.
I always try to maintain a sense of lets be calm no matter what – it does no one any good to panic. Today I am a tad unnerved that Josh from iCyclone is flying down for this storm. He doesn’t generally chase a storm unless it’s going to make major headlines. Just had to throw that out there. But then, why wouldn’t he come? We are approaching the two year anniversary of Odile which he was here for. This storm does have potential thanks to the moisture that joined in on the party off of mainland so it’s now a wider system than it would have been.
What I do know, is we can do this. You already bought food, water, spirits of choice, gassed up the cars, tested your generators, smartened up since Odile and have the best windows and window protection within your means … right? You don’t have debris laying around … so you won’t be responsible for projectiles … right? Obviously terra cotta roof tiles will do as they please. But you’ve brought in the patio furniture, outdoor plants etc, right?
You’ve charged all of your cell phones, you’ve got batteries for flashlights, your first aid kit …
Okay so just based on rain forecast alone – and knowing what a little rain can do to our town, as promised … here is the bat signal
The below information has been copied from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 052058
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
…AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT NEWTON IS NOW A HURRICANE…
…PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.3N 108.1W
ABOUT 215 MI…350 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI…495 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
west coast of the Baja California Sur from north of Puerto Cortes to
Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the
east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista and for mainland Mexico from north of Bahia
Kino to Puerto Libertad.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* north of San Evaristo to Mulege
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Puerto Libertad
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* north of San Evaristo to Loreto
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.1 West. Newton is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward
the north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday
and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday
morning, move over portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula late Tuesday, and move into northwestern Mexico on early
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected before
landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force data is 987 mb
(29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are
expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early
Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday.
For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions occurring
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes should end this evening.
Farther northward, tropical storm conditions are expected over
northwestern Mexico within the warning area beginning Tuesday
morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward
throughout the day.
RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Sonora as well as much of the
state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches through Tuesday night. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico from late Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of
up to 3 inches possible. These rains could result in dangerous
flash flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside
on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
*********************
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052059
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.
A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more
symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds
of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this
time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton
is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The
official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus
in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since
landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.
Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction
with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given
the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong
tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.
Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton
should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48
hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the
southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model
cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of
the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger
Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would
steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track
prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.
Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 08/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
and that’s all I got for now. ~ Jenn
I’m not even going to bother with fixing spelling and grammar.