Current Weather and Computer Models

Todays official weather update is brought to you by Maddie “Corona”

“CABO WEATHER UPDATE for the next week or so – chances are it will be sunny, hot, and humid, with a possibility of rain. If it rains, it may be scattered or widespread. There may also be a chance of slight breeze or high winds. If it does not rain, we may have a cloudy day or two, but it will still be hot. Temperatures may feel like 100 degrees if you’re not sitting under a palapa enjoying a cold refreshing drink where it will feel like 85 degrees. Choose your palapa wisely, make sure it does not leak in case it starts raining.” ~end Maddie quote

 

A weather woman after my own heart.  Reminds me of someone … haha

I mentioned we’d do a brief refresher on computer models when they were available but I’ve been a tad busy and apologize for the delay.

But first, let’s look at the 5-day from the NHC

 

 

So we’ve (meaning the East Pacific Ocean not we as in Los Cabos) got ourselves a depression.  We can start with that.  The depression is about 650 south west miles from Cabo San Lucas and NOT COMING HERE, as it is headed out west.   Computer hurricane models that use mathematical equations try and figure out what the weather or in this case a storm, will do next.  Each computer model has its strengths and its weaknesses and they rarely agree 100%.  It helps to see them all in one screen shot.

 

 

 

Let’s look at a less congested graphic …

 

 

 

 

You might have noticed that the Euro model isn’t used.  I really don’t know why. I am not a professional and haven’t looked into it.  I’ve tended to favor the Euro model lately, but that is just because it was doing a better job for a while.  Anywhooooo, so looking at all of those computer models and seeing how they cannot agree, as is the case with Tropical Depression 15-E, they come up with what I call the cone of concern.

 

 

 

Anywhere that is shaded all white is where the center of this system could end up in the next 3 days and potential days 4 and 5 are semi shaded. As you can see, they really cover themselves on where this system might end up! Naturally, we can all be relieved that our region is to the east of this system.  But even if it was headed our way, which it’s not, people often become over excited if Cabo San Lucas or the entire region, is not INSIDE the white or shaded area which is a false sense of comfort.  The white and shaded area are meant to help guess where the CENTER of the storm will be … it does not mean we do not see wind and rain!  Well, in the case of 15-E is means we will not see wind and rain.

 

Moving on, as there is another system out there in the East Pacific Ocean and yes, it has a chance of bringing us rain and or wind.  First graphic in the orange, as a 80% chance of at lease becoming a depression in the next 5 days and its moving in a northward direction so chanced of rain are high.  That is a far as I am willing to go at this time.  It keeps changing, but there is a 60% chance of rain (as of right now) for this coming Friday so there is a 40% chance it won’t rain.  That being said, should the NHC issue a cone of concern … pay attention to it if it is near land.

You can go to windy who straight up tells you in a disclaimer that their wind speeds are not accurate … and see the Euro be conservative and the GFS scare the crap out of you … or you can do what you should have already done since the beginning of our hurricane season.  Calmly stock up your non-perishables, always have plenty of water for drinking, keep the gas tank topped off … there are a lot of things … you already know what you need.  Maybe tomorrow I will type out a list of suggested items we’ve shared in the past.  Oh, clean up your yard so you aren’t “that neighbor” whose stuff ends up down the street (we did all that, but the trash can … I miss my trash can and I am pretty sure a neighbor that previously didn’t have one is now enjoying it.  I’ll consider it a gift for my own stupidity).

Don’t let people fear monger you.  If you are already – “ready for anything”, there is no sense of panic, even if we have until Mid November for the season to be over.   Yes, storms are scary, but keep calm about it is my best advice and even though they are never accurate, refer to the professionals.  Always, stick with the professionals like NOAA/NHC as they are real meteorologists and get paid to get it wrong!

And also, do not let people condescend you when you are having an internet chat about the weather.  All locals are “weather experts” and sometimes can get really opinionated (and passive aggressive) which I experience often.  That being said, I do not have paid advertisers … the weather reporting just seems like a natural thing to do when you have a not for profit totally for entertainment only radio station.  It is also important to listen to the locals … as after many years we get a sense for these things from experience.  Just don’t let anyone pick on you if you state your opinion or the way you perceive things – we are all learning daily.  We never stop.

 

Which reminds me … we never do traffic reports so here is one.

 

 

Traffic Jam in September alert!

So … enough babbling for today.  It’s not like anyone reads the wordpress version of weather reporting anyways … Facebook seems more popular for me but … who needs the scrutiny? ha!

Many updates to follow. xoxo ~ Jenn