NOTE: they aren’t storms yet! Don’t freaking panic … let’s see what they do first. Residents know the drill though.
Yes, there are several areas of interest in the East Pacific Ocean and one of them might impact us. It’s been a while, but if we aren’t all sofa weather experts by now from TV or real life experience, let’s get a little refresher course.
First we start with an area of interest or in this case, several. Note, they are not “official” invests yet. They become official when they get a number. What is an Invest? “An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_%28meteorology%29
I know, right? You can visit the site directly and click on each “circle” to see what each one says http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 but in summary
“1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
Katia, located a couple hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico,
is showing some signs or organization. Environmental conditions are
not favorable for significant development as the system moves
westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico in the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
while the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
the Baja California peninsula by the middle of this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development after that time while it moves northward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Forecaster Avila”
So now we wait to see if any of those will become Tropical Depression, a Tropical Storm, or a Hurricane.
STAGE ONE: A tropical depression forms when a low pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. Most tropical depressions have maximum sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph. At my house … the plastic chairs on our patio start to move after 30+ mph. Nothing to worry about, but if I am feeling OCD, it is a bit annoying that they moved 5 feet across the patio.
STAGE TWO: The tropical depression may have low air pressure, but it’s self esteem has grown in the form of stronger winds, has become more organized instead of being scattered all over the place and becomes a tropical storm. A tropical storm usually has sustained winds at the storms center, of 39 mph or higher with gusts of up to 73 mph. Note: We do stack up the patio furniture and move it to a corner because – gusts up to 73 mph possible! We prefer our patio furniture stays home, as do our neighbors.
STAGE THREE: When are talking about Hurricanes, there is a system in place to rate storms in the Atlantic called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale which is great, if you live on the east coast and your homes and infrastructure are primarily wood framed homes. Some areas of the world the homes are built with material far stronger, like Cabo San Lucas – our homes and buildings are built with reinforced concrete bricks using rebar, which are then are filled with concrete; super strong! Sadly some areas of the world use lesser materials as we all mostly build with what is readily available. Remember the story of the three little pigs? Instead of the piggies being lazy, think in terms of what is available to build with.
There is no category 6 as the experts have decided a category 5 is already total destruction – which is totally lame that the whole world uses a system designed for wooden framed homes, but I digress.
Feeling very confident at least one of those areas of interest in the 5-day outlook from the NHC will become an invest, and we will start seeing computer models. I prefer to watch satellite imaging but … to each their own. A lot of people are becoming very fond of windy.com but they have a disclaimer that their wind speeds are not accurate.
computer hurricane models that use mathematical equations try and figure out what the weather or in this case a storm, will do next. Each computer model has its strengths and its weaknesses and they rarely agree 100%. I like to use current examples …. so will do so, maybe as soon as tomorrow.
In the meantime, we are expecting rain.
Accuracy is questionable.
Mas … maybe mañana.
Thanks. I turn to you for NO FAKE NEWS!!!