ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 29 2017
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a rather large area of
showers and thunderstorms near the coast of Mexico extending
southwestward for several hundred miles. This system is expected to
become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves
generally northwestward near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
Baja California Sur. Residents along the coasts of Colima, Jalisco,
Nayarit, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be
required for a portion of these areas later today. Very heavy rain
is also expected over the next few days in these same areas, which
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Forecaster Blake
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
I posted a Facbook update this morning on Live Cabo Radio’s FB page https://www.facebook.com/LiveCaboRadio/ where I posted several graphics including screen shots of several areas, Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo, up by Todos Santos, the mountains and also the East Cape. We are ALL expecting a LOT of rain. It’s kinda late in the day, and rain and wind rates change frequently, so I will not be posting those graphics but if you use the link above, you will see when and where we are expecting 6-12 inches of rain.
I am totally going to copy/paste most an old blog update (this one https://wordpress.com/post/livecaboradio.wordpress.com/1882) so you understand why locals get all freaked over even an inch without having to keep opening new windows:
Why it Floods Downtown
When you see pictures of flooding in front of Squid Roe, it’s actually normal. I know, you’d think we would have some kind of “real” drainage system here to handle 1-2 inches of rain better than that. It’s not for lack of trying – for the record I’ve seen them put in drainage like down by Artisanos and I am sure there are more areas but none come to mind at this moment. But then, who builds a town in a dried up creek known as an arroyo? (oh yeah … paradise, for reals. It’s awesome here so uh, “we do!”) Let’s look at a topographical view of the Baja Peninsula below. I mean, really look at it.
In the center, you see we have mountains which is where it usually rains when the forecast calls for rain. Notice how it’s brown around the edge (before the obvious sand portions)? It’s brown because most of the time near the coast, we do not get the rain. The entire area slopes towards the ocean. Since water flows downhill … it naturally wants to flow towards the ocean and we are a seaside town.
So who is really effected by the rain? The people that live in or next to the creeks (arroyos) for starters (they are seriously effected and usually evacuated when it gets bad) and of course anyone with a reason to be downtown when it rains or they own/work at a business downtown.
So an inch or two of rain will temporarily make certain areas of downtown look like this (photo credit Ro Sanchez):
Roughly the same area, the very next morning and its important to note that it barely rained late in the afternoon or barely at all during the night so the streets probably cleared up much earlier than 8am-ish when I took this pic (photo credit myself)
As soon as the water reaches the sea (the marina is basically a small block away), we (downtown) just have to dry out. But now you understand why we panic when they (the people with degrees hanging on their walls) tell us 6+ inches of rain. END COPY/PASTE
So you can imagine, we are a little worried about 6-12 inches of rain.
Now another COPY/PASTE from a different blog post (original https://livecaboradio.blog/2016/08/06/why-locals-freak-about-rain-and-tell-you-not-to/)
Why locals freak about rain …
I’ve often used the analogy about the three little pigs. One has made his home out of straw, the other sticks, and of course there was the house made of bricks. In Cabo, homes are made of whatever is available … most of bricks with rebar and filled with concrete. We can handle most winds.
But rain? Awe man! Not our friend. Most common complaints are that no matter how you’ve built your home, or business, there is a really strong chance it will leak. If not the roof, then under the doors and/or through the windows. So while you may be enjoying yourself at a waterhole because you’d rather be in Cabo and get rained out, we will probably be busy mopping.
Also, the streets get all messed up and since the water runs downhill, many areas flood. This means schools get cancelled, buses run late or can’t get you to and from work … and many of these wonderful people it effects, are trying to get to work to accommodate you. We are, a tourist town.
Also, it almost never rains here. So of course, we get excited. We need rain. Not all at once though 😳
So it’s kind of hard not to notice all of the posts on the internet about next weeks rain. Truth is, the forecast changes every couple of hours. The heart of the storm could hit us directly, go up the Sea of Cortez, or head West. Until it happens, we really just don’t know anything more than to expect rain. Probably a lot of rain. We really won’t know until it happens.
The whole purpose of this blog, has always been to help people to understand what forecasts actually mean. I’m not into fear mongering or having a lot of post likes etc. because there is no popularity contest here. END COPY/PASTE
As of right now, 2pm-ish Tuesday afternoon, all we are expecting is rain and winds up to 30mph. Over a period of several days. The National Hurricane Center is advising us to pay close attention the the low pressure system because whether it develops or not, we are at risk for flash floods and when I saw we, I mean the region. We really don’t know what is going to happen, until it has already happened.
This isn’t to cause panic or anything (if you are a local and in a flood risk area you really should panic though and take care of your business like we’ve discussed here for years when talking storm prep) … just wanted to help explain why you may see people freaking over ONLY a few inches of rain in Los Cabos, when you are watching what is happening in Texas on the news. We’ve been watching it too and have all been impacted and send them our love and prayers. Everyone I know, has friends and family in Texas even if they have never stepped foot in the state themselves, myself included. There is zero comparing here, how could we? Just explaining our own personal freak outs.
So please, bare with us while we have our own small meltdown and we will back to normal next week! We hope!
We are on standby to find out of this thing is going to develop …
~Jenn