El Niño Watch & 1st 2023 Hurricane Season Forecasts

The graphic below IS embedded correctly but it’s silly and showing an older date. To be on the safe side click this link https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/GOES16-EEP-13-900×540.gif

It’s that time of the year when all of the experts start putting out season forecasts for hurricane season. If only we had crystal balls … I should start with AccuWeather for the Atlantic Ocean as they are very timely with putting out their predictions, even though as you all know my primary focus is on the East Pacific Ocean (which is covered in this blog) because that is what will affect where I live. I just can’t leave out the friends in the Atlantic!

While we wait for the NHC to put out their forecasts for “us”, we will go over last year as well as what Semar has already published for Mexico which will include our region.

First a little re-cap. Just like every app is sometimes more accurate than others, it is the same with each agency and the computer models they are relying on. For 2022 AccuWeather gave an initial forecast of 15-19 named storms of any strength from tropical depressions to major hurricanes; 6-8 of those named storms could become hurricanes ranging from category 1-2, and 2-4 major hurricanes ranging from categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale (see below) of 3-5.

Last year, SEMAR thought the Atlantic would have a total of 21 named systems; they did not guess on tropical depressions but thought there would be 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes plus 2 major hurricanes. There were 17 storms total for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season; 3 tropical depressions, 5 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes plus 3 major hurricanes. Please see below for a chart that shows what SEMAR had forecast vs what the NHC registered for those that prefer visuals.

I really wish the NHC/NOAA had their forecasts published so that I only need to do this once, but I know many are eager!

For 2022 forecast: SEMAR; 20 total named storms. 1 tropical depression, 12 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. AccuWeather; 15-19 total named storms regardless of strength. 6-8 could be hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. The NHC/NOAA; 10-17 named storms of which 4-8 could become hurricanes with an additional 0-3 becoming major hurricanes.

Since only SEMAR has put out a forecast, let us quickly look to see what happened last year.

I know you prefer I just cut to the chase and get to THIS year but first, for 2022 we ended up with 8 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes all during La Nina when our waters are cooler than average.

Right now the current ENSO cycle our sea surface water temperatures are normal, with a strong possibility of warming to the El Nino Cycle which means we could see a more active hurricane season for the East Pacific Ocean.

So finally, the first forecast for our VERY large ocean with Mexico’s coastline being 9,330-kilometer or 5,797.39 miles, we need to keep things in perspective.

Which states are most affected by hurricanes?

  • In the Pacific Ocean: Baja California Sur, Jalisco and Michoacán,
  • On the Atlantic side: the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz.

Although the number of hurricanes or their intensity cannot be predicted NOR can they predict IF landfall will occur or where it is recommended that the population of the coasts be prepared and follow the recommendations of the authorities. So here ya go, the first forecast for the 2023 East Pacific Ocean as well as what SEMAR put out for the Atlantic.

EDIT: This next one from Conaqua popped up after I posted this.

Just Jenn

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