The Eastern Pacific is staying busy.
As we head into the final days of August, there are currently two named tropical storms being tracked by the National Hurricane Center: Karina and Lowell. Neither poses a direct threat to Los Cabos, but both are worth watching as they develop over the open Pacific.
And there is already another system waiting in the wings.
🌀 Tropical Storm Karina
Karina is the one closest to Baja California.
As of the Friday morning advisory, Karina was located near 13.2°N, 115.0°W, approximately 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph, with higher gusts, and the storm is moving northwest at about 10 mph.
Karina is expected to continue generally northwestward today before making a turn toward the west over the weekend.
The important part:
Karina is forecast to remain well offshore.
There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and there is no indication that Karina is headed toward Los Cabos.
However, Karina is expected to strengthen significantly.
The NHC says environmental conditions remain favorable for intensification, with warm water, abundant moisture and relatively low wind shear. Karina is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.
The latest forecast calls for Karina to potentially reach major hurricane strength early next week before eventually encountering less favorable conditions and weakening.
That sounds dramatic—and it is—but the location matters.
This is a storm that we are watching from a distance, not one that is currently threatening Baja.
🌊 What could reach Baja?
Even though the center of Karina stays far offshore, its swells will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend.
The NHC warns that these swells could produce life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
So if you’re heading to the beach this weekend, pay attention to the local conditions and the flags posted by ZOFEMAT.
🌀 Tropical Storm Lowell
Farther west, we have Tropical Storm Lowell.
Lowell is currently located around 12.5°N, 132.8°W, approximately 1,560 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Maximum sustained winds are around 45 mph, and Lowell is currently moving very slowly, toward the north-northwest at about 5 mph.
That slow movement won’t last.
A turn toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with westward motion continuing into early next week.
Lowell is also expected to strengthen and is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.
The NHC notes that Lowell is dealing with some vertical wind shear right now, but conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for strengthening.
For Baja California and Los Cabos, Lowell is not a threat.
He’s simply another storm to keep an eye on as he heads west across the Pacific.
👀 And There’s More Behind Them
Because apparently two tropical storms weren’t enough.
The National Hurricane Center is also watching an area that is expected to develop well south of southwestern Mexico this weekend.
Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and the NHC gives this system an 80% chance of developing during the next seven days.
A tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
Farther west, another area of low pressure could develop well south or southwest of Hawaii during the coming days. That one currently has a 40% chance of development over seven days.
So yes…
The Pacific is busy.
🏖️ Los Cabos Beach Conditions Today
And while the tropical systems remain offshore, today’s beach conditions are a much more immediate concern.
ZOFEMAT is reporting a combination of red and yellow flags throughout Los Cabos.
🔴 Red flag: Swimming is prohibited.
🟡 Yellow flag: The beach is considered dangerous, and swimming is permitted only with caution.
In Cabo San Lucas, red flags are posted at several beaches, including Las Tinajas, Curva del Soldado, Migrino, Club Cascadas de Baja, Villa del Palmar, Villa del Arco, Villa La Estancia, Riu Palace, Riu Santa Fe, Riu Baja California, Las Viudas, Santa Maria and El Tule.
Yellow flags are posted at El Corsario, Médano Breathless, Hacienda, Casa Dorada, Me Cabo, Pueblo Bonito Los Cabos, Pueblo Bonito Rose and El Chileno.
In San José del Cabo, Palmilla and La Playa are yellow, while Acapulquito, Costa Azul and Las Palmas are red.
In the Zona Norte, La Ribera, Surgidero, El Datil/Capilla, Spa Buena Vista and La Gaviota are all yellow.
If you’re heading to the water, follow the flags and listen to the lifeguards. Conditions can change quickly, especially when swells and currents are elevated.
🌴 Bottom Line
For Los Cabos, there’s nothing approaching that requires panic today.
Karina is strengthening, but remains far offshore.
Lowell is even farther away and heading west.
Another disturbance is developing south of Mexico.
And the local story is still the same one we know well in late August:
The Pacific is active, the atmosphere is tropical, and Cabo doesn’t need a named storm to get interesting weather.
Keep watching the tropics.
We’ll keep watching with you. 🌴🌀
— Live Cabo
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