The Eastern Pacific has gotten a little busier!
None of the current systems is a reason for Los Cabos to panic. There is still plenty to watch.
The tropics may be distant, but the pattern is unsettled, and the models are not singing from the same hymnal.
Karina: A Category 4 Hurricane
Hurricane Karina has undergone quite the transformation.
As of Monday morning, she is a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, moving west at about 9 mph, well west-southwest of the tip of Baja California.
The two-day outlook map puts her far offshore, a compact hurricane walking west under a ridge. Infrared imagery still shows a warm eye wrapped in very cold cloud tops—the look of a storm that peaked hard and is now starting to lose a little definition on the northwestern side of the eyewall.
That is good news for Baja California Sur.
The official track keeps her over open water. Less favorable conditions wait ahead: cooler water and drier air. Weakening is expected to begin Tuesday.
For Los Cabos, the takeaway is simple:
She is not headed toward the peninsula.
She is only sending swell—and a reminder that the Pacific is still capable of making powerful storms.
Lowell: Still Hanging Around
Tropical Storm Lowell is farther west and less dramatic, but he is part of the picture.
He now has 65 mph winds and is moving west at about 14 mph, hundreds of miles southeast of Hilo.
Forecast guidance takes him generally westward, with strengthening possible over the next day or two. With conditions expected to remain favorable, Lowell could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.
Again, he is not a direct threat to Los Cabos.
Hawaii is the place that needs to keep watching later in the week.
And then there’s 95E.
If you’ve been looking at the rain in the local grids and wondering where it is coming from, this is the character to watch.
Invest 95E—the red X on the outlook map several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico—has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days and a 90 percent chance in the next seven days.
Satellite imagery shows a system that is organizing, and a Storm Warning is already in effect for the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and seas look to occur Wednesday and Thursday.
Marie is the next name on the list.
The ingredients are there: very warm ocean water—the sea-surface temperature analysis still shows a broad pool of 82–85°F-plus water from the Mexican coast well out into the basin—abundant moisture, and a developing circulation.
Ingredients do not automatically tell us what we are cooking.
So… what happens next?
This is where forecast uncertainty matters.
The models are already arguing about 95E’s future. Timing, organization, and track are not the same story from one guidance family to the next.
Some solutions veer left. Some hug the coast. Landfall somewhere between Los Angeles and northern Baja appears on a few runs and disappears on others.
People naturally want to know:
What is 95E going to do? Where is it going to go? When will Marie form? And what will she become?
It is simply too soon to say.
What we can watch is the moisture.
The local model grids for Los Cabos—ECMWF, meteoblue AI, GFS and ICON—show an increasingly unsettled mid-to-late week: more clouds, higher rain chances Thursday into Friday, still mostly modest totals in any single period, and winds picking up a bit midweek.
95E looks like the likely source of at least some of that tropical moisture.
This is the important distinction:
A tropical system does not have to come to Cabo to affect Cabo’s weather.
Moisture can travel hundreds of miles from the center, interact with the atmosphere over Baja California Sur, and produce clouds, showers and thunderstorms while the storm itself stays at sea.
When a model paints rain over Los Cabos, don’t immediately look for a storm track pointed at us.
Sometimes the storm stays out at sea, and only its moisture comes visiting.
Ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm across much of the region.
There is plenty of atmospheric fuel.
For now, we’re watching rather than predicting.
95E may become Marie. We expect it will.
What we do not yet know is what kind of Marie she will be.
The atmospheric writers are still working on that part of the script.
And, as always, we’ll be watching. 🌴🌀🌧️
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