Thursday morning/afternoon, and Rachel finally looks like a hurricane on purpose.
After spending days looking like she couldn’t decide what she wanted to be when she grew up, Hurricane Rachel has finally pulled herself together.
8 AM MST Advisory 18
- Category 2 hurricane
- 105 mph
- 964 mb
- Moving west-northwest at 6 mph
- Center near 19.6°N, 109.6°W
- About 230 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Hurricane-force winds extend only about 35 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend about 150 miles.
Small core. Long wake.
The official forecast track keeps Rachel south of the Baja California Peninsula, then turns her west and sends her out over the Pacific. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next couple of days before cooler water and drier air begin taking some of the shine off.
She is not aimed at the Arch. She is walking the hallway past the house.
Personality check
Yesterday she was the late guest who wouldn’t pick an outfit.
Today she picked one.
The eye is trying to organize. Lightning is firing in the core. Microwave imagery is showing the low-level center tucked more securely into the convection instead of hanging off the north side.
She’s looking considerably more like the hurricane the forecast expected her to become.
Still not the guest who kicks the door in.
Polo already did that up-peninsula and left.
Rachel is the one who got pretty in the driveway and is now heading for the exit.
Slow.
Westbound.
Expensive swell attached.
What the colors mean, because this map will get misread
The tropical-storm-force wind probability graphic shows the chance, over the next five days, that a location experiences sustained winds of 39 mph or greater at some point during that period.
It does not show:
- wind gusts
- swell
- rainfall
- how long the wind will last
- how windy your patio will feel
- the size of the storm
That big purple-and-red area is associated with Rachel’s highest probabilities and is well south of Cabo.
The green fringe represents progressively lower probabilities farther from the core.
Los Cabos is not sitting in that bright-colored field.
The cone shows the probable path of the storm center.
The probability map shows the chance of experiencing a specific wind threshold.
Two different tools.
And Cabo?
We’re outside the warning game and outside the highest-probability wind area.
The ocean is still in the group chat.
Cabo, specifically
Point forecasts for the tip are not showing a washout.
Through the weekend, the models are generally showing breezy conditions — roughly 15 to 25 mph today and Friday, easing afterward — with rainfall amounts that look more like sprinkles and an occasional shower than a repeat of September.
ECMWF is the drier of the bunch.
There is a little Sunday bump showing up on some guidance, but right now that’s a maybe, not a headline.
The real local product is the flags.
ZOFEMAT — Thursday, October 1
Cabo San Lucas: black flags are posted across the listed beaches, including Médano, El Corsario, Hacienda, Pueblo Bonito, Villa del Arco, the Rius, Las Viudas and the rest of the beaches shown on the ZOFEMAT report.
Black flag means the beach is closed.
San José del Cabo: black flags are posted at Palmilla, Acapulquito, Costa Azul, Las Palmas and La Playa.
Zona Norte: red flags are posted from La Ribera through La Gaviota.
Red means no swimming.
Rachel’s swells continue to work northward along the west-central Mexico coast and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week, with dangerous surf and rip-current conditions possible.
That is the Cabo chapter.
Not a landfall.
The pink blob
And then there’s Disturbance 1, south of southern Mexico.
That is a later bookmark.
Not today’s homework.
The area is being watched for possible development later this weekend or early next week, but the near-term formation odds remain low.
If it earns a name, we’ll talk about it.
Not before Rachel finishes walking west.
And Polo?
Polo’s chapter is closed for Los Cabos.
He came ashore up-peninsula, crossed Baja California Sur, crossed the Gulf of California, made it into Sonora and eventually became a remnant low.
His leftover moisture is still capable of producing flooding problems well away from where he originally made landfall, including parts of the Southwest U.S.
But for Cabo?
Polo left the building.
Rachel is what’s on the board now.
And Rachel is staying offshore.
Official information
🌪️ National Hurricane Center:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/
As always, official forecasts and local authorities are the place to go for watches, warnings and safety information.
One last thing…
How did Polo affect you?
Whether you’re in Los Cabos, somewhere else in Baja, mainland Mexico, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas or anywhere else that got a piece of Polo’s weather — I’d love to hear what you experienced.
Rain? Wind? Flooding? Power outages? Huge surf? Nothing but clouds?
Tell us where you were and what Polo actually looked like from your front door. 🌧️🌬️🌊
Because that’s the other half of weather reporting: the forecast tells us what the atmosphere was expected to do.
You tell us what it actually did. ❤️