The final chapter of September is here—and somehow the Pacific still isn’t done with us.
If you skipped a day, here’s the plot:
Polo left the building. Rachel took the stage. Cabo is still watching the water, not the front door.
Hurricane Polo made landfall Monday night on the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of Las Barrancas. After crossing the peninsula, he crossed the Gulf of California and made another landfall in Sonora near Guaymas on Tuesday before weakening rapidly over the mountains.
The last NHC advisory Tuesday evening classified Polo as post-tropical/remnants.
That chapter is closed.
What Polo left behind was a very wet September, a battered stretch of northern Baja, and an ocean that isn’t exactly finished with us yet.
And now there’s Rachel.
🌪️ Rachel: The New Leading Lady
Rachel spent several days looking like she couldn’t quite decide what she wanted to be.
Wind shear repeatedly pushed much of her thunderstorm activity south of the center. Satellite imagery would pulse, reorganize, become messy again, and then pulse again.
And then she got her act together.
As of the 8 AM MST Wednesday, September 30 NHC advisory, Hurricane Rachel was:
- 85 mph
- 978 mb
- Moving northwest at 9 mph
- Located near 18.1°N, 108.0°W
- About 220 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes
- About 380 miles west of Lázaro Cárdenas
Hurricane-force winds extend only about 25 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend roughly 160 miles.
So Rachel has a relatively compact core—but a much larger reach when it comes to the ocean.
And that matters here.
Rachel’s forecast
The current forecast has Rachel moving generally northwest for another day or so before turning more toward the west and west-northwest, remaining south of the Baja California Peninsula and eventually heading back out over the Pacific.
Mexico’s coastal watches and warnings associated with Rachel have been discontinued.
That does not mean southern Baja should completely stop watching her.
It means the concern has shifted.
For Cabo, this is not a landfall story.
It is an ocean story.
🌊 What Rachel Means for Cabo
Rachel isn’t Polo 2.
There is no current forecast showing Rachel coming ashore at Land’s End.
What Cabo does have is an increasingly active Pacific swell pattern, with swell spreading northward along the west-central Mexican coast and the Baja peninsula through the end of the week.
That means:
- Dangerous surf
- Strong rip currents
- Rough ocean conditions
- Continued beach restrictions
- And conditions that can remain hazardous even when the storm center is nowhere near us
And today’s local beach reports make that pretty clear.
Cabo San Lucas
ZOFEMAT is reporting red and black flags at numerous beaches, including black flags indicating beaches are closed at several locations.
San José del Cabo
The listed beaches are also carrying black flags / beach closures.
Zona Norte
The reported conditions are different, with yellow flags, meaning swimming is permitted with caution.
That’s a good reminder that Los Cabos is not one uniform weather or ocean zone.
The storm can be offshore while local beach conditions vary considerably from one stretch of coastline to another.
🌀 The Wind Probability Map, Explained in Friend Language
You’ve probably seen the colorful map making its rounds.
Here’s what it actually shows:
It is the five-day probability of sustained tropical-storm-force winds—winds of at least 39 mph for a one-minute average—occurring at a given location.
It does not show how windy your patio will be Thursday.
It does not show gusts.
It does not show swell.
It does not show rainfall.
It does not show how long the wind might last.
And it absolutely does not show the size of Rachel.
The colors represent the probability of reaching that particular sustained-wind threshold sometime during the five-day period.
The cone is a different product.
The cone shows the probable path of the storm center.
The wind-probability map shows the chance of experiencing a specific wind threshold.
Two different tools. Two different questions.
So if you see a faint probability area reaching toward the southern tip of Baja, that does not mean Rachel is booked for dinner at Medano.
It means there is some probability of tropical-storm-force sustained winds during the five-day period.
Meanwhile, the ocean can still be rude.
🌧️ And Then There’s the Rain
September has already been a lot for Cabo.
Cabo San Lucas typically receives roughly 9–11 inches of rain in an entire year.
And one personal weather station near Medano has already recorded close to 10 inches during September alone.
That’s one station—not a measurement for all of Los Cabos. Rainfall varies dramatically across the municipality.
But the larger point is simple:
The ground is not starting from zero.
A little more rain doesn’t necessarily behave like a little more rain when the soil, drainage systems and arroyos have already had a very wet month.
Rachel’s primary Cabo story remains the ocean, but with an already-wet landscape, even peripheral moisture is worth keeping an eye on.
🌀 Meanwhile, Out in the Pacific…
Because apparently September wasn’t interested in ending quietly.
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
As of the Wednesday morning advisory, Nineteen-E was located near 14.3°N, 128.4°W, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, moving east at 10 mph.
The current forecast keeps it well offshore.
And the ensemble guidance shows a fairly broad range of possible tracks.
For Cabo?
Not today’s plotline.
We’ll let Nineteen-E figure out what it wants to be when it grows up.
And There’s Another Orange Blob
The NHC seven-day outlook also shows another area of potential development south of Mexico.
The current formation chance over the next 48 hours is near zero, with some potential for development later in the weekend or early next week.
So yes, it’s on the board.
No, we’re not decorating the living room for it.
Bookmark. Don’t panic.
That’s what the seven-day outlook is for.
🎭 The September Finale
So here we are.
Polo has crossed Baja, crossed the Gulf and crossed into history.
Rachel is now the active hurricane, strengthening offshore while the forecast keeps her south of the peninsula before she turns west.
And Cabo?
We’re watching the ocean.
Not a landfall cone over the Arch.
Not Polo 2.
Not another reason to start moving patio furniture around.
Just a Pacific hurricane offshore, a significant swell, dangerous surf and rip currents, and beach flags that are telling their own very clear story.
September has been quite the month.
And because this is the last Hurricane Season Novela update of September, I’ll leave you with the simplest version:
Polo left.
Rachel showed up in a better outfit.
Cabo is watching the water.
And October is apparently waiting backstage. 🌴🌀❤️
Official information
National Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
As always, conditions and forecasts can change. The official NHC advisories and local authorities remain the source for current watches, warnings and safety information.