Polo is the emergency. Rachel is the next chapter.
Mexico’s Pacific coast has official tropical cyclone watches and warnings associated with two different Eastern Pacific systems at the same time.
That is uncommon enough to stop and notice.
It is not something I’m going to declare a never-before-seen weather record without digging through decades of National Hurricane Center archives. But the better-known recent example of two tropical cyclones affecting Mexico simultaneously was Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid in September 2013—and those storms were on opposite coasts, Pacific and Atlantic.
What we have today is different.
Polo and Rachel are both in the Eastern Pacific, and both are currently generating official coastal products for Mexico at the same time.
So yes. The Pacific apparently decided one hurricane wasn’t enough plot development.
And while Cabo is watching both systems, Polo is the one that matters most right now.
Hurricane Polo: This Is the Emergency
8 AM MST Advisory 32
Polo is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum pressure of 958 mb.
He is moving northeast at 10 mph, with the center near 24.2°N, 113.5°W.
That puts Polo approximately:
- 85 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro
- 225 miles south-southwest of Santa Rosalía
That’s Magdalena / mid-peninsula geography.
Not Los Cabos.
But this is no longer a distant storm that Baja California Sur simply watches from the sidelines.
Polo is making landfall this evening.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast takes the center into the west coast of Baja California Sur this evening, near major-hurricane strength, before crossing the peninsula, moving over the Gulf of California and reaching southern Sonora Tuesday morning still as a hurricane.
Once Polo gets into the mountains, rapid weakening is expected.
The warnings are for the people who are about to experience this.
A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected.
For the people living in these areas, this is the time to finish preparations—not continue watching the forecast for another perfect opportunity.
Hurricane Warning
West coast of Baja California Sur:
Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
East coast of Baja California Sur:
Loreto to Bahía San Juan Bautista
Mainland Mexico:
Bahía Kino to Huatabampito
Tropical-storm conditions are already possible in the southern portion of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected along the west coast later this afternoon.
As Polo crosses the peninsula tonight, dangerous conditions will spread north and east.
The current forecast calls for 6 to 12 inches of rain in parts of Baja California Sur, with additional heavy rainfall possible farther east.
Where winds blow onshore, storm surge and destructive waves are also a serious concern.
For residents in the warning areas, this is no longer a “let’s see what the next model run does” situation.
The window to finish preparing is closing.
Follow local Protección Civil instructions and the National Hurricane Center’s official advisories.
Cabo and Polo
Los Cabos is still not in the Hurricane Warning.
That distinction matters.
The center of Polo is approaching the middle of the peninsula, not Land’s End.
For Cabo, Polo’s local story continues to be primarily about the ocean:
- Dangerous swell
- Strong currents and rip currents
- Closed beaches
- Rough surf
- Marine hazards
This is not a Monday-evening landfall at the Arch.
And if you already staged your water, charged your batteries and cleared the balconies last week, you didn’t waste your time.
Preparedness is rarely wasted.
Those supplies remain useful for power outages, heavy rain, tropical-storm bands—or whatever the next chapter of this season decides to throw at us.
Rachel: Named, Warned, and Not a Cabo Landfall Today
Remember that little depression we were watching yesterday?
She has a name now.
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E became Tropical Storm Rachel.
9 AM CST Advisory 6
Rachel has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving west-northwest at 8 mph.
Her center is about:
- 230 miles south-southwest of Acapulco
- 415 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward about 160 miles from the center.
Mexico currently has a:
Tropical Storm Warning
Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula
Tropical Storm Watch
North of Playa Pérula to Cabo Corrientes
That’s southwestern mainland Mexico—Michoacán and Colima country.
Not Baja California Sur.
NHC’s current forecast keeps Rachel’s core offshore while strengthening, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by midweek.
Later forecast positions bring Rachel into the general vicinity of 19–20°N and 109–110°W.
And that is why Cabo stays interested.
Not because Rachel is currently coming for Land’s End.
Because the forecast is several days out, and the track will tell us whether she eventually becomes relevant to the southern peninsula.
How to Read Rachel From Los Cabos
Today:
Rachel is primarily a southern mainland Mexico problem, with additional ocean impacts farther north.
Later this week:
Watch the official track.
If Rachel starts crowding the approaches to the southern peninsula, we’ll zoom in and look at what that actually means for Los Cabos.
Until then:
Already being prepared is smart.
It is not the same thing as saying:
“Polo 2 is coming for Land’s End.”
Those are two very different statements.
Two Storms. One Pacific.
And this is the part that makes today’s tropical weather picture unusual.
Polo is moving into Baja California Sur with hurricane warnings in effect.
Rachel is developing farther southeast with tropical-storm warnings along the southwestern mainland coast.
Both are Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones.
Both are generating official coastal watches or warnings for Mexico.
At the same time.
That doesn’t mean they are going to interact.
It doesn’t mean Rachel is coming to Cabo.
It doesn’t mean every place inside a broad model precipitation or wind graphic will experience those conditions.
It means two separate tropical cyclones are currently important enough to produce official coastal products along Mexico’s Pacific coast simultaneously.
That’s worth documenting.
And it is another reminder of why we watch the official forecast, rather than letting a single model run—or a dramatic screenshot—write the story for us.
The Bottom Line for Cabo
Polo:
Immediate concern for northern and central Baja California Sur. Cabo remains outside the hurricane warning area.
Rachel:
A newly named tropical storm affecting southwestern mainland Mexico. Too early to call a Cabo threat.
Los Cabos:
Keep watching the ocean, respect beach closures and flags, and follow the next official advisory.
Northern and central Baja California Sur:
This is their storm now. The warnings are real, conditions are expected to deteriorate today, and preparations should be complete.
And for everyone who is in Polo’s path:
We are keeping you in our thoughts and prayers. ❤️
Official information
For the latest official forecasts, watches and warnings, go directly to the National Hurricane Center:
I’ll keep updating the situation as the forecast evolves.
There will be another update soon.