Polo dropped a category and picked up warnings.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 11 AM MST Intermediate Advisory 28 Sunday, Hurricane Polo is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a minimum pressure of 950 mb. He is moving north-northwest at about 12 mph near 21.3°N, 114.0°W.
And yes, there is now a Hurricane Warning for parts of Baja California Sur.
But Cabo San Lucas is still not in it.
That distinction matters, because I can already hear the screenshots being taken.
First, the distance check
Because someone is going to look at the satellite image, see that enormous hurricane, and immediately decide Cabo is doomed:
- Polo is about 285 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas
- Polo is about 265 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro
That second location is Magdalena Bay country, not Land’s End.
Polo weakened after an eyewall replacement cycle and some shear, while the core has become larger. Hurricane hunters are back in the storm, and the National Hurricane Center continues to forecast Polo moving north toward the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, crossing the peninsula Monday night and then moving toward northwestern mainland Mexico.
The messy part now is when, not the general direction.
Forward speed is still one of the bigger forecast uncertainties.
And that matters because a faster or slower Polo changes the timing and location of the worst conditions.
Who actually has a Hurricane Warning?
This is the part Facebook will flatten into:
“BAJA IS UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING!”
No.
Baja California Sur is a big peninsula.
The Hurricane Warning currently covers:
West coast BCS:
Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
East coast BCS:
Loreto to Santa Rosalía
Those are mid-peninsula locations — roughly the Vizcaíno/Abreojos and Santa Fe areas on the Pacific side, and from Loreto northward toward Santa Rosalía on the Gulf side.
Hours north of Los Cabos.
A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected in the warned area, and the NHC is urging preparations to be rushed to completion.
There is also a Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible, extending farther north on the west coast toward Punta Eugenia and farther along the Gulf side, including San Evaristo and areas north of Santa Rosalía.
There are also Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches extending into parts of mainland Mexico.
And yes, NHC continues to tell the rest of Baja California Sur to monitor Polo.
But:
“Monitor Polo” is not the same thing as “Cabo is under a Hurricane Warning.”
Timing matters
The current NHC timing puts:
- Tropical-storm conditions possible in the southern warning area tonight into early Monday
- Hurricane conditions reaching the west-coast warning area Monday afternoon
- The strongest conditions then spreading north and east across the mid-peninsula Monday
The warning area could also experience storm surge and destructive waves where winds are blowing onshore.
Rainfall is another concern, with 4–8 inches forecast across parts of Baja California Sur and isolated amounts up to 12 inches. Parts of Sonora could receive 4–6 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
And before somebody takes that rainfall graphic and declares Médano Beach the next Atlantis:
Look at the map.
The orange and red rainfall core is concentrated over west-central Baja California Sur. Los Cabos is nowhere near that core on the current forecast.
That does not mean Cabo gets nothing.
It means don’t invent a flood that the forecast isn’t showing.
The wind-probability map tells the same story
The tropical-storm-force wind probability graphic is another useful reality check.
The highest probabilities are concentrated over the areas under the warnings farther north.
Los Cabos is out toward the very low-probability outer edge of that graphic.
Again:
The hurricane is enormous on a satellite image. That does not mean the hurricane-force wind field is sitting over Cabo.
The cone is the probable track of the center, not the size of the storm, and hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone.
Cabo on Sunday
For Los Cabos, today is still a marine-hazard day, not a board-the-windows day.
The latest ZOFEMAT beach report has:
Cabo San Lucas:
⚫ Black flags — beaches closed.
San José del Cabo:
⚫ Black flags.
Zona Norte / East Cape:
🔴 Red flags — no swimming.
So the local story is very straightforward:
Swell. Rip currents. Dangerous surf. Closed beaches.
Those are the things happening here now.
Polo’s center is still well west of Cabo and the forecast track takes him farther north.
That is why the current situation in Los Cabos and the situation in northern and mid-Baja California Sur can look dramatically different at the same time.
Northern and mid-Baja
If you’re in the warning area:
Secure the property. Make the plan. Follow Protección Civil and the National Hurricane Center.
And perhaps stop refreshing Facebook every 11 seconds. 😂
Cabo
Watch the water. Respect the flags. Have your Sunday. Check the next advisory.
And please don’t confuse a mid-peninsula landfall forecast with Land’s End.
Those are two very different things.
And then there’s the rest of the cast…
Because apparently one hurricane wasn’t enough plot development.
Odalys
Odalys is weakening quickly.
The latest advisory shown here has Odalys with maximum sustained winds around 60 mph, moving north. The forecast has the system weakening further and becoming post-tropical.
She’s not the Cabo landfall problem.
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
And then there’s our newest character.
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is south of Mexico, currently around 12.7°N, 98.6°W, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and moving west-northwest at about 5 mph.
The current NHC forecast has the depression strengthening into a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane while remaining offshore of southern Mexico.
That’s next week’s character.
Not tonight’s Cabo landfall.
The bottom line
Polo is a Category 3 hurricane.
There are now Hurricane Warnings in parts of Baja California Sur.
Those warnings are real, and the people in those areas need to take them seriously.
Los Cabos is not in the Hurricane Warning.
Cabo’s immediate issue remains the ocean and beach conditions, with black flags and closed beaches in Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo and red flags farther north/east.
The forecast will continue to evolve.
So, as always:
Watch the actual forecast. Not the Facebook screenshot. 😏
