September 26, 2026

Big change from yesterday: there is now a Hurricane Watch — and it is NOT on Cabo.

Polo came off his Category 5 high overnight.

Friday afternoon, Hurricane Hunters still had him at 180 mph. By Friday night he was down to 175, then 165. This morning’s 8 AM MST NHC Advisory 24 has Polo as a Category 4 hurricane with 155-mph winds and 928 mb pressure, moving west-northwest at 9 mph.

His center was near 17.9°N, 111.7°W, about 365 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

The eye is becoming cloud-filled, and NHC expects additional weakening. But they still forecast Polo to reach Baja California Sur Monday as a strong hurricane.

The models agree more on where he is going than exactly when he gets there.

The Hurricane Watch — and no, Santa Fe is not next to the Arch

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Polo CLICK HERE FOR UPDATES! Every 3 hours when last is under threat.

If those names mean nothing to you, you are not alone.

That is the Pacific side of mid-to-northern Baja California Sur — the Vizcaíno/west-central coast.

Punta Eugenia is way up by Bahía Tortugas and the Vizcaíno Peninsula. Santa Fe is a small Pacific-coast community farther south along that same western shoreline.

Think west of the desert spine.

Not Médano.
Not the Corridor.
Not La Paz.

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible in that area. Watches are generally issued far enough in advance for preparations to be completed before tropical-storm-force winds arrive.

For the area actually under the watch:

• Tropical-storm conditions could begin as early as Sunday night or Monday.
• Hurricane conditions are possible Monday and could spread northward.
• Dangerous surf, large waves and coastal impacts are possible.
• Rainfall of 4–8 inches, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches, is forecast late Sunday into Monday, with flooding and mudslide potential in steep terrain.
• NHC is urging people in the watch area to finish preparations by Sunday.

Additional watches could be issued later for other parts of the peninsula as the forecast evolves.

None of that is a Cabo hurricane watch.

What that means for Los Cabos

Los Cabos is not in the Hurricane Watch.

The current official forecast still takes Polo along the Pacific side of mid-to-northern BCS, then across the peninsula and into mainland Mexico as he weakens.

Cabo remains on the southern end of the forecast envelope.

The tropical-storm-force wind probability map tells the story nicely: the highest probabilities are concentrated farther north, around the area now under the Hurricane Watch. Cabo is on the faint outer edge of the probability field.

Current Cabo point forecasts are still showing breezy conditions and relatively small rainfall amounts, not a hurricane day at the marina.

That does not mean the ocean is fine.

The ocean is still the Cabo story.

Swell, rip currents and coastal flooding remain concerns, and ZOFEMAT’s Saturday beach reports still show:

Cabo San Lucas: BLACK FLAGS — beaches closed.

San José corridor: BLACK FLAGS — beaches closed.

East Cape / Zona Norte: RED FLAGS — no swimming.

Polo can miss the tip of the peninsula and still shut the sand down.

Cone reminder

The white shading shows the possible location of the storm center.

It is not the size of the storm.

Hazardous weather can occur outside the cone, and the pink area on this morning’s graphic represents the Hurricane Watch — not a promise that every location inside the broader forecast area will experience the same conditions.

The cone is a forecast.

Not a reservation.

A few important numbers

Mexico emergency number: 911

For local conditions, follow official updates from Protección Civil BCS/Los Cabos, Capitanía de Puerto and ZOFEMAT, including the beach flags.

And if you are in the Punta Eugenia–Santa Fe watch area, the time to finish outdoor preparations is before conditions deteriorate.

For Cabo, the current story is different: watch the swell, the beach flags, marine conditions and future forecast changes.

And that’s where I’m leaving you for today.

Because Los Cabos is not currently under the Hurricane Watch and the official forecast does not put Polo’s center here, I will not be doing another full Polo update today.

NHC will continue issuing updates, and if something changes materially for Los Cabos, I’ll be back.

In the meantime, if you have something to share with us — local conditions, photos, videos, beach observations, rain, wind or ocean conditions — please send it my way.

The blog will continue to have the full NHC package and updates, with the direct NHC link in the comments.

Polo is still a major hurricane.

He is simply no longer a 180-mph monster.

And this morning, the first official Hurricane Watch drew a line well north of Cabo.

That’s the update.