I don’t want to talk about Invest 98e yet but … Hurricane Models

I don’t want to even think about Invest 98e yet but it is already making its rounds on the internet so let’s talk about it.  For those new to my weather reports because you don’t follow along on Facebook (smart!! don’t get sucked into Facebook!), I always try to educate a little so please bear with me if you already know all of this!

It is just too early to know anything. I wish I could stop there! But those pesky internet reports trying to get more FB shares and “likes” while fear mongering … Grrrrrrr.

What is an Invest? “An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development.”  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_%28meteorology%29

So we’ve got an area of disturbance. Now what?  Well,  computer hurricane models that use mathematical equations try and figure out what the weather or in this case a storm, will do next.  Each computer model has its strengths and its weaknesses and they rarely agree 100%.  It helps to see them all in one screen shot.  Using Invest 98e as an example, notice where the red “L” is? That is the current location of this system.  Each different colored line is a path with time markers each of the 6 most widely used computer models think this system will go and each dot represents a twelve (12) hour period).  These computer models will change their “minds” several times a day every day so it really is pointless to worry – yet.  ep201598_model


As of now, we are looking at a 50% chance of rain Monday … and maybe a 50% chance of rain next Thursday/Friday with great weather in between and great weather by next weekend.

It’s the weather.  It’ll change … just wait 5 minutes!

Next update we will talk about the “cone of concern” – that is when the National Hurricane Center really wants us to pay attention.

The National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

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