Yesterday we had a refresher course on computer models and now that Invest 98e has become Tropical Depression FIVE-E let us have a refresher on what I refer to as “Cones of Concern”.
The National Hurricane Center has started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression FIVE-E complete with a 5 day forecast model. Anywhere that is shaded all white is where the center of this system could end up in the next 3 days and potential days 4 and 5 are semi shaded. As you can see, they really cover themselves on where this system might end up! Many people breath in a sigh of relief when they see that Cabo is not in the “Cone of Conern” but that doesn’t mean we won’t get some wind and rain, it just means that the professionals do not think they eye (center) of the storm will pass over us.
I am also a really huge fan of the graphics from http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ because it shows what they “think” the strength of the system will be, where and when all totally subject to change several times a day.
Latest Forecast Models are all over the place. It’s really looking like this system will be and stay south of us but we still need to monitor it because the water temps are pretty warm.
I got that sat image from the Navy http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2015&MO=07&BASIN=EPAC&STORM_NAME=05E.FIVE&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=full&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/EPAC/tropics/track_vis/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
So while as of now it looks like Cabo is in the clear with regards to how close this system will get, we will be monitoring this system closely. We need the rain but our new windows are not installed yet and if we have to meet Dolores I’d feel better with hurricane rated glass. Odile did a number on the window frames to our house and the slightest breeze keeps us up all night with rattling windows.
If the alarms need to be set, as always, I’ll pull the panic button but for now I’m remaining calm.
Updates as needed on Live Cabo Radio’s Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/LiveCaboRadio?fref=nf and also the Hurricane Info – Los Cabo Facebook Group where there are some awesome files for stocking up on non-perishables and a whole lot of shared info on the weather! https://www.facebook.com/groups/727074667339978/