June 17, 10-day forecast w/update on 93e

Invest 93e is proving to us yet again why we should truly never look beyond a two day forecast just for rain – especially when there are so many variables let alone what a low pressure system will or will not do.  I’ve read we are supposed to be getting rain and that may be so, for the mountains or the East Cape (I haven’t looked) With a two day outlook, yeah … we can guess that if it says it will be partly cloudy today with a high of 89f if we are looking at our nearest weather station, and that Saturday and Sunday will be pretty warm as well – dress for hot weather and plan on staying hydrated. If you look beyond the 2-day, water temps, wind shears, a butterfly – so many things alter the forecast. Do out of the blue rain storms happen? Yes. But generally, at least in Cabo as San Jose has it’s own micro-climate as does centro and the mountains behind us – unless we see 50% change or greater, we just presume it will be a lovely day.

LCW June 17 10 Day

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This system has
begun to move into a less favorable environment and the chances of
tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. Conditions will become
even less favorable for development by tonight as the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brennan

two_pac_5d0

LCW Jun 17 2016

20160617.1700.goes15.x.vis1km_high.93EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-195N-1095W.100pc

Image above from the Naval – NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Okay so there it is, 93e. It’s looking more and more like it will dissipate by Sunday before ever turning into a depression let alone our first named storm of the season. The NHC still says we (E.Pacific Ocean) have a 40% chance of this system turning into “something” while it really has no effect on us with the greatest exception of wave heights. Right now we are getting 1-2 meter waves – please be careful especially along the Pacific Coast where they discourage you from getting close to the water and beg you not to swim in it. Two tourists lost their lives recently from a rogue wave. It is very heartbreaking and as a community we implore you to head the warnings.  If you see a sign on the beach, do not ignore it.

See the way the winds are both pushing the system north west while it heads away from land to cooler water?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/rb-animated.gif

At this time, the only thing left to discuss about 93e is whether or not it will suck some clouds over us and rain in the mountains which is what usually happens.  Which reminds me – I need a new umbrella. One just never knows! ~ Jenn

Images and info from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac

Images and info from wunderground: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac

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