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Edit to update: Invest 97e is now Tropical Depression Five-E and will soon become Hurricane Darby; our 4th Hurricane of the 2016 season. The low pressure system south-east of that is also expected to form within the next week to become Hurricane Estelle. Look for another system to form around the 20th but do not quote me on that, as I do not trust long term forecasts.
NOTE: ALL of these storms are moving AWAY from Mexico.
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112042 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.3W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
END EDIT. 4pm Cabo Time
I. Need. Coffee. Lots of activity now that the East Pacific is waking up. Me, not so much.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb-animated.gif
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 110832
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016
…CELIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.0N 124.5W
ABOUT 1095 MI…1765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Celia was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 124.5 West. Celia is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so. Slow weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Yes, yes we do have another Invest. 97e
As of 5:00 am PDT Mon Jul 11 2016 …
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become
better defined this morning. Associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
With such a late start in the season compared to the last few years, it would seem, that these things are going to pop up one after another and being only July, we can continue to expect them to move AWAY from Mexico being that the water is too cold near Baja, and the winds are in favor of not just Baja but Mexico in general.
Possible storm positions in about a week …
I’m not even going to hazard a guess as to what strength if any, these storms will have in a week as we all know, predicting today’s weather is hard enough 😃 All I’ve got, is that at this time, and because it’s just July, no storms are a threat to Mexico. Let’s go find some coffee!
~Jenn
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