For an updated post – CLICK HERE
All storms still heading AWAY from Mexico. 😊 Just needed to get that out there first.
Now it’s only right to cover Blas first since it was developed first. There seems to be a major difference in forecast tracks based on the computer models put out by the National Hurricane Center and wunderground. Since it doesn’t effect us here in Mexico, I would say What Difference Does It Make??? Except it matters. If land and people were in the storms path, which site do we trust? I will err on the safe bet, and say to stick with the “experts” However, I think, this is something to keep an eye on for all future storms. Especially since (now I adore wunderground and will soon be linked to it with our weather station) wunderground has been quirky lately. See the differences below when you study the graphics.
See the difference?
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 081453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...BLAS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 130.0W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 130.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Computer models below …
Newly formed Tropical Storm Celia!
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081451 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 112.8W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 112.8 West. Celia is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Celia may become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
A few days ago in one of my armature hour photoshop attempt at graphics … I did make a small reference to an area we weren’t paying attention to. Here is the link and the graphic has a reference to an area not related to what was, Invest 96e CLICK ME – or not. Only if ya really want to.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Blas, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Four-E, located more than 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Forecaster Brown
Now from the graphics below, we all see the pattern. The storms forming one after another are all heading away from Mexico, west, to west-north-west for the most part. I still will sleep better if Hawaii pays attention to these storms though the long terms models disagree greatly on whether or not Hawaii will see any weather or get hit. I just do not trust long term models but still, this is why we = anyone living in a tropical area prone to storms should always prepare at the beginning of the season and have family emergency plans in place. Just. In. Case. It’s better to always be ready for anything than blindsided.
Speaking up preparing, if you haven’t already decided on window protection, there is a brief babbling session about WHAT NOT TO DO from me CLICK ME.
I do believe I said something about a 10-Day forecast … Accuracy may vary 😃
Have a great weekend, and I hope there is nothing to update until … never. Or at least Monday ❤️
Armchair Amature Weather person,
Jenn
These links will take you to the source of the images and information pasted above, as well as the text from the NHC
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