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Afternoon edit/update: Hurricane Celia is edging closer to cooler water and should start to weaken even more soon. Max sustained winds have already decreased from the 90mph this morning to 80mph. Tropical Storm Darby, is getting stronger. This morning max sustained was 40mph and now they are 50mph and could become a Hurricane by tomorrow. The one are being monitored has changed from a 60% chance of becoming a storm in the next 5 days to 70% … so basically the only thing that has changed are the graphics have changed from orange to red. Things happen rapidly and storms have proven to be unpredictable so if it jumps by an insane amount there will be no evening update. I’ll probably have fallen asleep and will miss it anyways since the storms are of no threat to us there is no reason to monitor them closely. ~end edit 3:15pm Cabo Time
But first … thank you to all of our new followers!
Wait hold on a minute … when I write this, I do not type in all CAPS. I have no idea why it is posting in all caps. I will have to figure that one out later. I hope, it is only coming up like that on my computer because I am definitely not shouting or too lazy to turn off the CAPS button.
Today we we’ve been greeted by partially cloudy skies and the humidity is so high I’m almost positive we will get at least a little rain though the forecast says no … the GIF below shows clouds coming in from off of mainland. #JustSaying. We might see some rain. “We” could be Cabo, San Jose, La Paz … please check your local forecast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/rb-animated.gif
So let’s look at what is going out in there!
First, Celia …
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121431 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ...CELIA FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 128.5W ABOUT 1280 MI...2055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Celia was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 128.5 West. Celia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west- northwest is anticipated later today or Wednesday, and this track should continue during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Now let’s look at Darby.
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM DARBY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 108.5W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby could become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
But wait, there’s more! Dr. Jeff Masters, who has a very popular blog on wunderground is already predicting the below area of interest will become Estelle.
From the NHC:
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Celia, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Five-E, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. Forecaster Berg
Note: All storms are and should head away from Mexico if you put any stock in long term computer model forecasts.
Now I have listed these as “what COULD” be”, below, around the 22nd, since so many like windyty but please note the the National Hurricane Center has difficulty with the 5 day track so looking so far ahead is nearly senseless. Unless you are like me and this motivates you to do that yard work that needs to be done like pruning the palm trees.
All tropical storms or stronger forming and possibly in the near, future show no threat to Mexico.
Day job is calling … have a great Tuesday everyone and please stay hydrated! ❤️
~Jenn
The Armchair Weather Woman that knows nothing and doesn’t even have a cape 😞😃 because I am just me
Link to the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac
Link to wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
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