NEWEST UPDATE – CLICK ME for Friday’s blog
Afternoon text edit/update: Celia just won’t quit! She is maintaining her strength, but still expected to make a westward turn and give up the fight and should be a post tropical cyclone by Friday. Meanwhile, Darby has been hitting the irons and is getting a bit stronger by an increase of 5mph (was 80, now is 85) and should slow down his forward motion in the next few days. I presume the workout in the wake of Celia is exhausting. Then there is that are of interest, Invest 98e (an invest is when the National Hurricane Center decides it’s time to invest some interest – oh come on, it’s been a long day work with me and my bad humor here!) Anywhoo … Invest 98e hasn’t moved much. end edit 3:44 pm Cabo Time
Week is almost over and it’s been a pretty busy week out at sea!
Let’s start with Celia … because she was here first and Hawaii is in the the 5-day forecast
From the NHC: (CLICK ME for Direct Link to Text Below)
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 141445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...CELIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 136.7W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 136.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Celia is likely to become a tropical depression early Friday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Let’s take a moment and review computer models. There are more than you see in the image below but these are the primary ones used. As you can see, they do not agree where the storm will end up.
One of the reasons I like wundergrounds forecast track is because it’s color coded. The forecast track takes into consideration all of the computer models and combines them, to show that anywhere inside those circles, the center of the storm might ends up. That my friends, is as accurate as the pro’s can get.
The image above is what Celia looks like now. By the time Celia reaches the vicinity of Hawaii there most likely will not be anything left of this system. Just a guess.
Now on to Darby, just images because for those new to my blog,every once in awhile I like to remind people or teach the new followers what the images mean in case they didn’t know.
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...DARBY MAINTAINING 80-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 116.9W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 116.9 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Celia, located more than 1200 miles east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Darby, located more than 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles south and southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to become a tropical depression over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Forecaster Berg
Now scroll back up to the very first image. All storms are heading away from Mexico. As they should 😊 the conditions are just not favorable for storms to hug Mexico’s coastline. The winds are pushing the storms away from land, and the water temps near Baja are too cool for a storm to maintain strength (at this time).
Day job calling. Update later (3pm-ish Cabo time)
Wait! We finally received the quote for the insulated hurricane shutters. If we go with this particular company I’ll upload pics when they get installed at who knows which mañana 😂 sorry, local joke. Why isolated? Well, to keep the heat out and the cool air in. 😊
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