Evening update. Very brief. Apparently we are going backwards in Invest #’s Disturbance #2 is now Invest 90e.
Have a good night everyone! ~Jenn
Afternoon update that will actually include graphics today on Disturbance #1 – it is now Invest 99e. See computer model possible paths below.
So … most have seen this next image below
Right? We’ve all seen it? Invest 99e is the red area. I know it looks like the NHC is trying to say it is heading north towards us but again, scroll back up and look at the computer models. Yes, the storms do seem to be getting closer however, I am still not convinced we will get anything from this other than maybe a little rain and the rain I am seeing still appears like it will come from mainland Mexico. I totally reserve the right to change my mind as often as the professionals.
As of now, long term forecast models show whatever this system will be, should stay well off shore. Looking at the GIF above, we can see where the general direction of all systems are going including the rain we may or may not get this weekend (mainland)
~end update 2:50pm Cabo Time
Just not feeling it today. Feeling … snarky. Think all that loss of sleep from a large group of people having a grand old time till the wee hours of the night last weekend is still effecting my sleep pattern.
There are two areas of disturbances mentioned yesterday. Going to take a wild stab at this one … Disturbance #1 will probably not develop into more than rain as it hugs the coast of mainland and draws moisture from it, possibly resulting in some rain. Will it become an invest? Probably. A depression? It’s also likely. But at this time …the professionals that get paid to get it right some of the time are saying that there is a 20% chance of rain. As you keep reading, you will see contradictions which do not belong to me. I’m just typing out what “they” say depending on where you look for a forecast.
Friday while we sleep: Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Rain -20% chance
Saturday: .18 inches of rain are an 80% probability (regardless of what the image below shows) Day: Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Evening: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms mainly before midnight. Low 76F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: .08 inches of rain Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 90F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Saturday Evening: Partly cloudy skies early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later at night. Low 76F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Monday: .12 inches of rain Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High around 90F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Please note these are fractions of an inch. All subject to change every five minutes. I really don’t fault the professionals. That whole theory of how a butterfly can effect the weather is probably legit. Maybe bookmark the source so we can see how accurate or totally wrong it will be. CLICK ME
Looks daunting, doesn’t it?
Let’s see what the NHC has to say CLICK ME for direct link
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Darby, located about 1000 miles east of the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Estelle, located about 800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A broad area of low pressure located about 550 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent 2. A weak low pressure area is located almost 1000 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some development of this system later this week or this weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent Forecaster Cangialosi
So let’s fast forward with graphics made by using the computer models to next Monday. I do not see tropical winds, do you? OH, the one in the center is disturbance #2 … disturbance #1 seems to kinda sorta be missing.
Same site show little precipitation in its models. Of course, I’ll keep an eye out. I want to know how much to water my garden during the week and would prefer to get rain filled with nutrients than the water from my hose.
This is an article after my own heart. It’s written with his personal perspective and observations about rain water vs tap water: Dave’s Garden He doesn’t say rain water has more nutrients, but … still a good read IMO especially considering how many of us grow palm trees and aloe. He focuses more on what is not in the water.
Just because I personally do not see what the Pro’s do, means nothing. I do know, that I will get my grocery shopping done before the weekend just in case it does rain and gets windy. Why? I do not like driving in the rain and am not really a hat person. I will probably add graphics later in the week to show larger swells effecting the coast as well so everyone knows to be careful. Just because I am not feeling it now, means nothing. I just do not see us getting a hurricane this weekend is all …
I think I need to go find coffee … I know just the place. I mentioned it in Monday’s report.