Pretty busy right now in the East Pacific. Didn’t bother with Darby or Estelle updates today. They are however, still alive and Hawaii looks to be getting some weather soon from Darby.
No evening update. Just the image above ~9pm Cabo time
No sugar coating today. Today we must begin with safety, not during a storm or only when one is approaching but always – 365 days a year.
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE WATER!
Yes, I yelled that. Yes, I was screaming at you. I cannot emphasize enough the importance of keeping an eye out for rouge waves. Also, there are several beaches that are not swimmable under any circumstances. I don’t care if other people are doing it (using my mom voice). One prime example is Solmar and Pedregal beaches. There are signs up that tell you not to swim. Why? The undertow is so bad it will suck you in and your friends and family will not be able to help you. To be blunt – they will most likely not survive while attempting to save you. It’s heartbreaking, and it’s happened.
I’ve been consumed with day job things but just yesterday, at least one person (will edit when I know more) died last night on the Pacific Side.
Weather time. EVERYONE REMAIN CALM. Bookmark THIS LINK to see how much wind and rain is expected if any (it will change frequently and is subject to not be accurate) As of NOW, Frank is supposed to stay offshore.
For those new to my blog … or animated images please notice the direction that the storms are moving in the GIG below from the National Hurricane Center. They are headed AWAY from land – away, from Mexico. You will also notice that there are clouds moving across Mexico (mainland) towards Baja and that will account for some of the rain we are anticipating (which at this time is very little with a whole lot of humidity)
You are seeing that right. Tropical Storm Frank, our 6th tropical storm this month and Tropical Depression Eight-E.
So …. it’s looking like we might get some rain this weekend. Right now, we are getting swells up to 2 meters so please be careful of large waves and rogue waves (rogue waves can happen at any time). At the moment, the computer models do not show us getting anything larger over the weekend but peoples … I think 2 meters is large enough. Right? BE CAREFUL.
The image above is a forecast track. Each circle represents a broad area where the center of the storm might – end up. This will change frequently. A little shift to the left, a little shift to the right. I like the track from wunderground because it is color coded. The track, is made from forecast models. See image below
Above, are color coded tracks made from forecast computer models. There are more than 6 in existence, but these are the most widely used by the pro’s. As you can see, they do not agree with each other! The only thing they agree on is that the center of Frank will stay OFFSHORE. However, we may experience light winds and on and off rain.
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000 WTPZ32 KNHC 212033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 400 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...FRANK MARKS THE SIXTH EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM IN JULY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 104.0W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in extreme southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Frank. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 104.0 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank could become a hurricane by Friday night or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
The image above, is the one put out by the National Hurricane Center and is THE forecast model to keep an eye on. I’m just an armchair weather blogger. Always refer to the national hurricane center.
Now the depression …
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000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 114.0W ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
I’m to upset about yesterday’s events today. I’ll update later when I’m up to it.
Look, I am not trying to frighten people from walking along the beach. That wasn’t what my opening statements were about. But please, respect the ocean. ❤️
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And … do not forget the hurricane FB group, a central place to talk about the weather … where we talk about when S*** gets real, what to do, what not to do, and keep each other updated. In the files section there are a few good but still being perfected lists of things everyone should have on hand in the event of ANY emergency: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Financial Hardship … if we’ve got any preppers following us, we’d love more advice! https://www.facebook.com/groups/727074667339978/
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