2018 East Pacific Hurricane Season Forecast Uncertain

It’s always uncertain.  Anyone that lives in an area prone to tropical weather is anxiously awaiting the forecasts for the 2018 Hurricane Season.  The East Pacific season begins in just a few weeks on May 15th, and the Atlantic starts June 1st.  I think we’ve all gotten used to not getting our forecast until nearly the day before May 15th, but we can look to see what is expected for our friends in the Atlantic.

Click on links to read articles keeping in mind that these are not official forecasts:

7 hurricanes predicted for 2018 Atlantic season, Colorado State University says

The 2018 hurricane season could be as busy as the 2017 season

It only takes ONE storm.  Just one. One storm with super duper strong winds, one storm with “meh” winds but torrential rains. Either, can be devastating.

Fema is urging people to prep now “Starting now to be prepared for the next hurricane season gives you time to get ready over the next couple of months,” said FEMA Federal Coordinating Officer William Vogel. “Depending on the severity of the storm, it may be days before help can reach you. Everybody should be ready with a plan.” on their site with an update titled  It’s Not Too Soon to Prepare for the 2018 Hurricane Season

While we on the East Pacific do not generally see storms close to Los Cabos until mid-end of the season, getting your stuff in order now in our opinion, is always a smart move.  If you do not have hurricane window protection already, it takes weeks/months to have them made because yes, they are customized for each and every window.  Same goes for impact glass.  Of course storm prep is more than protecting windows and ensuring you do not have potential projectiles on your property that can hurt you, your family, neighbors and properties.  (More details in another update as we get closer to the season)

As far as what one might need during a storm, even if all you do today is make lists of what you might need before, during and after for up to several weeks should a storm impact you, you will already be one step ahead of most everyone else.  Lists are awesome.  You can slowly build up your supply using your list every time you shop and before you know it, you’ll have checked off everything and have a bit less stress should an emergency arise. More on this later.

I know, what about “us”? Well, all we know for certain is “In the month of March the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remained in conditions of weak La Niña . The different forecast models favor a transition to Neutral conditions during the spring months … Most global models predict that La Niña will end during the spring months of 2018. The forecast consensus favors a transition to ENSO-Neutral conditions until summer. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is more likely (~ 55% probability) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions in the second half of the year. ” smn.cna.gob.mx

A La Nina pattern is generally associated with an above-normal number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and below-normal activity in the Pacific.

This is what the Atlantic 2017 season looked like (it is missing Hurricanes Nate and Ophelia)

And this is what the East Pacific 2017 looked like (it is missing Tropical Storm Ramon)

So what are your thoughts on what we may expect with a possible ENSO-Neutral conditions for 2018? As of this moment?  I know “I’ve got nothin'” to quote an old friend. 

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